VOTE! Election thread

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What will be the results of todays vote?

  • Trump wins big

    Votes: 11 15.5%
  • Trump wins small

    Votes: 12 16.9%
  • No decision by tomorrow morning

    Votes: 27 38.0%
  • Biden wins small

    Votes: 15 21.1%
  • Biden wins big

    Votes: 6 8.5%

  • Total voters
    71

Rack

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okstate987

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No, he’s not. He’s just a shill for the left. I don’t believe random twitter on the conservative side either. RCP is probably closer to reality and the betting lines with 60/40 Biden advantage. If it is 90% like Nate says, the R’s lose president and just about every down ballot.
Ok, lets use RCP instead. They are currently projecting about a 90% chance of a Biden victory, which is about the same as FiveThirtyEight.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2016_president/#

6 to one, half dozen to the other.
 

Rack

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Add 2% to every poll and Trump still loses in a landslide. The polls would have to be way more off than that for Trump to win.
I think they are...but who knows...I'm biased and live in Trumptopia. See all these Trump 45 Parades just pop up every weekend all over the place all over the country including in California...I'm honestly thinking that this crazy year where people have been held prisoner they want hope and freedom not MORE and excessive fear and confinement.
 
Nov 18, 2011
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Ok, lets use RCP instead. They are currently projecting about a 90% chance of a Biden victory, which is about the same as FiveThirtyEight.

6 to one, half dozen to the other.
Ha! I meant use RCP for the battlegrounds, take your 2% or so that you mentioned previously in Trumps direction and where does that land? Even without the 2% most of these are already within the margin of error. A very tight race. That is probably reality.
 
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I could see states like NM and Oregon flipping as well. Those two states in particular are more red than is realized and the business owners in New Mexico are PISSED off at their Democrat governor for bankrupting them in her draconian measures vs tourism. In Oregon, the rest of the state not named Portland is very Red and I think they are going to vote against the "protest" /riots/lawless behavior in Portland in hopes to remove that crap from their biggest city.
Oregon is polling +23 for Biden.

Bend is very red? Eugene?

NM you might have a point. It is +6 for Biden and is really rallying around oil. Which is funny because oil was booming 2008-2016. Heaven forbid we go back to the type of leadership we were getting during the last boom. No I don't think presidents drastically effect oil business but if they did the GOP would have no data to support they have helped. Oil was crashing hard pre COVID.
 

SLVRBK

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Incorrect. Nate Silver is arguably the most accurate pollster since the late 2000's from a statistical standpoint. Do you really think some rando on twitter is more accurate?

That is just silly.
Does Nate actually conduct polls? I thought he just aggregated data from other polls.
 
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They think Trump is going to win...that is why they are prepping for unrest. The right doesn't violently erupt based on POTUS elections...but the left did big time in 2016 and it will pale in comparison to 2020. Talk about an irresponsible covid surge that won't be covered....
What big surges of violence happened in 2016?
 

Rack

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What big surges of violence happened in 2016?
Massive protest in the big cities...I don't recall those when Obama won either term. You know how to use google...go look. Plus they had racial unrest in 2015 in an attempt sway the election their way that time as well just like they sponsored that crap again in summer of 2020...didn't work then either and it will backfire this time.

Hope vs Fear will win the day.
 

okstate987

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Ha! I meant use RCP for the battlegrounds, take your 2% or so that you mentioned previously in Trumps direction and where does that land? Even without the 2% most of these are already within the margin of error. A very tight race. That is probably reality.
On average it lands in an 8 in 10 chance of Biden getting elected. You don't see the margins get close until you give Trump 6% or so, which is well outside the margin of error in these polls.

The markets are pricing in a Biden victory today, which is another tell. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...-the-trump-campaign-11604076754?mod=home-page
 
Jul 25, 2018
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Massive protest in the big cities...I don't recall those when Obama won either term. You know how to use google...go look. Plus they had racial unrest in 2015 in an attempt sway the election their way that time as well just like they sponsored that crap again in summer of 2020...didn't work then either and it will backfire this time.

Hope vs Fear will win the day.
Interesting how times change. Obama wouldn't make the Dem cut today based off of his '08 platform.

I have zero doubt we'll see large public gatherings, regardless of what happens with the vote, & that there'll be stuff destroyed. I just hope it doesn't turn violent, because after all, people whose stuff gets destroyed have insurance, so it's no big deal.
 

Rack

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On average it lands in an 8 in 10 chance of Biden getting elected. You don't see the margins get close until you give Trump 6% or so, which is well outside the margin of error in these polls.

The markets are pricing in a Biden victory today, which is another tell. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...-the-trump-campaign-11604076754?mod=home-page
It's just another tell that they are big city people who don't understand the massive rural anti riot vote that is about to be an outlier in any election cycle up until this one. Look, I don't know, but it seems to me that this very well could be the most massive miscalculation in the history of elections...and I sincerely feel sorry for the opposition when and if that happens because their media has outright FAILED them to grasp reality. It may be so bad that they try to paint a fabricated election for the GOP...which it won't be, just a massive turnout of the uncalculated rural vote like never before seen in American history. My parents have attempt to vote and have twice gone to look at the lines in OKC and turned around and went home. They are going to attempt again today...they are 81...this is just a small example of HOW pissed off America is about the riots and lawlessness and the cheerleading of it from the left of center. Don't be surprised if it doesn't go the way you think it will. Despite reports, the older generation are pissed and voting in droves. Some waiting in lines so long that they collapse at the polls.
 
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Rack

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Interesting how times change. Obama wouldn't make the Dem cut today based off of his '08 platform.

I have zero doubt we'll see large public gatherings, regardless of what happens with the vote, & that there'll be stuff destroyed. I just hope it doesn't turn violent, because after all, people whose stuff gets destroyed have insurance, so it's no big deal.
Isn't it a peach that some people actually think like this?