Covid-19

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Binman4OSU

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Stupid about AGW!!
This used to be called "news" didn't it?
it became bigger news when the Head of the Dept of Health communications team (and former OAN reporter) who pressed this treatment and worked on Trump to expedite it by order was fired by the Trump Admin just 11 days into her new job last week with the DHS after it come to light she had been pushing miss truths about this treatment that Trump singed an order to advance. And now the NIH has said the treatment shouldn't be used as option 1 for COVID treatment.
 

kaboy42

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In the beginning false positives weren't so much of a problem because we were mainly testing people who were symptomatic, and symptoms and a positive test is pretty much confirmatory. The biggest problem all along has been false negatives, especially once we started testing asymptomatic people who had been exposed. Asymptomatic and false negative is a big problem because then the person goes out and exposes others.
I know false positives aren't nearly as much of a problem, no real impact, but they are very misleading.


AND if we qualified, fully validated, and implemented a drug product test at my facility that gave 28ish out of 30ish results as "false" anything... the FDA would immediately fine us and shut us down.

I would have thought by now that some, if not most, of the issues with testing would have been ironed out by now, but in my experience, it hasn't. Not even close.

*Of course, for some odd reason, the testing labs we've been using, could be using early released tests OR just be really bad at the testing.
 

Binman4OSU

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Stupid about AGW!!
*Of course, for some odd reason, the testing labs we've been using, could be using early released tests OR just be really bad at the testing.
Or the FDA has zero clue about what they are doing or the testing platforms they are approving in order for Trump to tell news cameras "anyone who wants to be tested can be tested". Come to think of it...Trump never promised those tests would be accurate
 

RxCowboy

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I know false positives aren't nearly as much of a problem, no real impact, but they are very misleading.


AND if we qualified, fully validated, and implemented a drug product test at my facility that gave 28ish out of 30ish results as "false" anything... the FDA would immediately fine us and shut us down.

I would have thought by now that some, if not most, of the issues with testing would have been ironed out by now, but in my experience, it hasn't. Not even close.

*Of course, for some odd reason, the testing labs we've been using, could be using early released tests OR just be really bad at the testing.
There is no test that has a 28ish out of 30ish (93%) false anything rate. Again, symptoms and a positive is pretty much 100%.

The false negative rate, especially with the nasopharyngeal swabs, technique is a problem. The Yale saliva test is interesting, it might be much less technique-intensive.
 

kaboy42

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There is no test that has a 28ish out of 30ish (93%) false anything rate. Again, symptoms and a positive is pretty much 100%.

The false negative rate, especially with the nasopharyngeal swabs, technique is a problem. The Yale saliva test is interesting, it might be much less technique-intensive.
Did you miss my previous posts? We just completed testing our entire employee pool (300+ employees). We got like 30 positive test results... and offered immediate retesting... which most all of the 30 accepted. And during retest, only one came back positive a second time.

Again, this was utilizing different tests and different testing labs.
 
Feb 5, 2007
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This is the first instance of Oklahoma High School football being impacted that I am aware of

Lincoln Christian vs Jones football game has been postponed. Lincoln Christian played Beggs last week and several members of the Beggs team and staff have now tested positive
Nope. Guymon cancelled their game last Friday du to the whole team being quarantined. They are expected to play this week though.
 

RxCowboy

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Did you miss my previous posts? We just completed testing our entire employee pool (300+ employees). We got like 30 positive test results... and offered immediate retesting... which most all of the 30 accepted. And during retest, only one came back positive a second time.

Again, this was utilizing different tests and different testing labs.
Uh-huh... and how does that invalidate what I said about technique? Was the second test any less technique-intensive?
 

poknround

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Uh-huh... and how does that invalidate what I said about technique? Was the second test any less technique-intensive?
Rx...you need to understand that false positives are a huge issue. Our health system has seen a much higher false positive rate in the last 60 days or so. As a result, we stopped testing asymptomatic patients except for screening for procedures performed under anesthesia. The reason the false positives are problematic is because the person has to quarantine for 14 days or until they receive a negative test result. And then those they were in close contact with are also quarantined. Ive already seen this impact company workforce, schools, etc. As a matter of fact my daughter is worried right now because one of her volleyball teammates who is always either injured or sick has been told she has to either quarantine for 14 days or go get a covid test and not return unless her test is negative. If positive, the whole team has to quarantine.
 
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Rx...you need to understand that false positives are a huge issue. Our health system has seen a much higher false positive rate in the last 60 days or so. As a result, we stopped testing asymptomatic patients except for screening for procedures performed under anesthesia. The reason the false positives are problematic is because the person has to quarantine for 14 days or until they receive a negative test result. And then those they were in close contact with are also quarantined. Ive already seen this impact company workforce, schools, etc. As a matter of fact my daughter is worried right now because one of her volleyball teammates who is always either injured or sick has been told she has to either quarantine for 14 days or go get a covid test and not return unless her test is negative. If positive, the whole team has to quarantine.
And if you are in a job where you have to go without pay for two weeks its a huge issue. If kids can't go to school because of false positives, it's a huge issue. And if colleges have to go 100% online, it's a huge issue.
 

TheMonkey

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In the not at all surprising department ...lockdowns didn’t work
Well, this is going to be misrepresented like the 6% statistic from the CDC. I’m still trying to identify the learnings from this. It’s hard to parse correlation from causation here. He states this defies common sense and no experts can explain why.

Supposedly, the harshest lockdowns we’re not more effective than light lockdowns. That doesn’t mean we should just go Les Miles on this thing and let ‘er rip.

I’d be interested in a reasonable discussion of this without all the hyperbole and political mudslinging it usually incites. Is this really saying anything more than let’s continue social distancing, avoiding crowds, and wearing masks. No need to lockdown heavily. No excuse to do a free-for-all?
 
Feb 11, 2007
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There is no test that has a 28ish out of 30ish (93%) false anything rate. Again, symptoms and a positive is pretty much 100%.

The false negative rate, especially with the nasopharyngeal swabs, technique is a problem. The Yale saliva test is interesting, it might be much less technique-intensive.
For all of you interested in this important issue...go to westward.com. Dr. Westgard a analytic chemist who became in interested in medical laboratory testing. His site here discusses key testing issue. discussed here.
An initial quote from his site:
"By mid-August 2020, the list of methods for SARS-COV-2 testing (molecular, antigen, rapid, and serology), was just under 780. Rather than ask laboratories to evaluate 780 possibilities, we've narrowed the candidates down to a short list."
 
Mar 11, 2006
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Well, this is going to be misrepresented like the 6% statistic from the CDC. I’m still trying to identify the learnings from this. It’s hard to parse correlation from causation here. He states this defies common sense and no experts can explain why.

Supposedly, the harshest lockdowns we’re not more effective than light lockdowns. That doesn’t mean we should just go Les Miles on this thing and let ‘er rip.

I’d be interested in a reasonable discussion of this without all the hyperbole and political mudslinging it usually incites. Is this really saying anything more than let’s continue social distancing, avoiding crowds, and wearing masks. No need to lockdown heavily. No excuse to do a free-for-all?
I don’t think the point of the article was advocating to have a free for all and stop wearing masks in crowded spaces, but to point out that mandated government lockdowns did not statistically show improvement versus locations that had mandated shutdowns.
 

TheMonkey

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I don’t think the point of the article was advocating to have a free for all and stop wearing masks in crowded spaces, but to point out that mandated government lockdowns did not statistically show improvement versus locations that had mandated shutdowns.
Agreed, and I got that. My point is that we’re gonna see some of the same knee-jerk reactions from folks looking for confirmation reinforcing their bias. “Lockdowns don’t work! Open everything up and don’t tell me to wear a mask!”

This is encouraging, that we may not see a need to lockdown severely again. But if another major outbreak like NYC happens again, what will we do? It doesn’t really offer a solution. It just says our previous extreme solutions didn’t work well.
 

RxCowboy

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Rx...you need to understand that false positives are a huge issue. Our health system has seen a much higher false positive rate in the last 60 days or so. As a result, we stopped testing asymptomatic patients except for screening for procedures performed under anesthesia. The reason the false positives are problematic is because the person has to quarantine for 14 days or until they receive a negative test result. And then those they were in close contact with are also quarantined. Ive already seen this impact company workforce, schools, etc. As a matter of fact my daughter is worried right now because one of her volleyball teammates who is always either injured or sick has been told she has to either quarantine for 14 days or go get a covid test and not return unless her test is negative. If positive, the whole team has to quarantine.
If they are asymptomatic how do you know it is the positive that's false?
 
Mar 11, 2006
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Agreed, and I got that. My point is that we’re gonna see some of the same knee-jerk reactions from folks looking for confirmation reinforcing their bias. “Lockdowns don’t work! Open everything up and don’t tell me to wear a mask!”

This is encouraging, that we may not see a need to lockdown severely again. But if another major outbreak like NYC happens again, what will we do? It doesn’t really offer a solution. It just says our previous extreme solutions didn’t work well.
For another major outbreak, this solution is definitely not near complete, but instead of general lockdowns, have resource be targeted to vulnerable population. Provide funding for fast testing for nursing homes, fund quarantine areas for older population, push for stores to offer special hours for seniors, etc.
But just don’t close schools - that does not help.
 

RxCowboy

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Im just not even going to answer your question. You simply dont get it.
You aren't going to answer the question because you don't have an answer. With an asymptomatic patient who tests both negative and positive it would require a crystal ball to tell which of the two tests was true. Statistically, the false negative is more likely with most of the tests.