Covid-19

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steross

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Good article just from last week. “Sweden’s outperforms other European countries during pandemic”

In the article, “adding to growing evidence that the decision to avoid full lockdown is paying dividends”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/05/swedens-economy-outperforms-european-countries-pandemic/


An interestingly this is from the New Zealand Herald this week (August 10th). Maybe New Zealanders are tired of the strict heavy-handed government approach? The NZ Herald article is talking about how Sweden is doing.
“On one key measure – percentage change in new confirmed cases over the past fortnight relative to the previous 14 days – Sweden is down more than a third.
This contrasts with sharp rises in neighbouring Denmark, Finland and Norway, along with countries such as Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK.
Meanwhile, the latest data suggests Sweden is suffering less severe economic trauma than most major European nations, while it has, almost uniquely among Western countries, kept schools open.“
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12355353
Finding an article like that in the New Zealand Herald is like finding a pro-Biden article in the New York Times. It is a right-leaning paper.

The chart I posted gives a comparison of economies most similar to Sweden. The fact that they beat all of Europe's average is not surprising but is like us comparing to Cuba and Panama. And they had more deaths. If you only seek data to prove your already determined position, that is all you will find.

Here is Sweden, Norway, and Finland. Really difficult to find a closer comparison than those three. You can see that Sweden's first wave was later, larger and less controlled. Nor/Fin peaked 4-5 months ago. Sweden 6 weeks ago. Taking two countries that are probably getting a second wave and comparing two-week data to a country that is still coming off of its first wave to claim better policy is just data dredging attempting to find a point.

It would be incredible news if someone could actually show me real data that laissez-faire policies worked better. Believe me, I don't like sitting at home, either. And, in places in the US that started getting hit, they had to institute stricter policy. I am open to the idea, I'm even more open to the idea of once we have more data figuring out what parts work well and what is for show. But I don't see real data backing it.

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Duke Silver

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Well, I’m glad they didn’t shut down a year earlier when I went there. Most amazing place I have ever visited, and I travel a decent amount. I hope to go back. The hardest part was the 25 hour flight each way. Definitely won’t do economy again.

By the way, this whole conversation made us reach out to some friends of ours in NZ and check on them. Of course, this lockdown is tough on the whole country, especially since they rely quite a bit on tourism. We found out some other things are happening personally for our friends that they requested we pray for. Real world stuff, unrelated to COVID. I’m glad we reached out.
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25 hour flight
 
Mar 11, 2006
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Finding an article like that in the New Zealand Herald is like finding a pro-Biden article in the New York Times. It is a right-leaning paper.

The chart I posted gives a comparison of economies most similar to Sweden. The fact that they beat all of Europe's average is not surprising but is like us comparing to Cuba and Panama. And they had more deaths. If you only seek data to prove your already determined position, that is all you will find.

Here is Sweden, Norway, and Finland. Really difficult to find a closer comparison than those three. You can see that Sweden's first wave was later, larger and less controlled. Nor/Fin peaked 4-5 months ago. Sweden 6 weeks ago. Taking two countries that are probably getting a second wave and comparing two-week data to a country that is still coming off of its first wave to claim better policy is just data dredging attempting to find a point.

It would be incredible news if someone could actually show me real data that laissez-faire policies worked better. Believe me, I don't like sitting at home, either. And, in places in the US that started getting hit, they had to institute stricter policy. I am open to the idea, I'm even more open to the idea of once we have more data figuring out what parts work well and what is for show. But I don't see real data backing it.

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You are saying the media is biased? Nah

So was the NZ Herald inaccurate for stating the fact that Sweden had a better economic outcome during the pandemic than the rest of Europe?
 

steross

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You are saying the media is biased? Nah

So was the NZ Herald inaccurate for stating the fact that Sweden had a better economic outcome during the pandemic than the rest of Europe?
I don't know the numbers for all of Europe but I highly doubt they made it up. But, they specifically said "the average of all of Europe."

Well, what if the University of Texas football team got hit hard by COVID. Would an announcement that they are still better at football than the average college football team in Texas mean much? Europe includes many economically weak countries. The chart I posted earlier shows Sweden vs countries far more similar. They did a slightly better by GDP and had far more cases, deaths and a longer first wave for it. That isn't groundbreaking to me.

If it basically goes away in Sweden and everywhere else gets pummeled by more waves, I will jump right in with all of you cheering their victory. But, that has not happened, yet. So far, they just had a big first wave, like US.
 
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I don't know the numbers for all of Europe but I highly doubt they made it up. But, they specifically said "the average of all of Europe."

Well, what if the University of Texas football team got hit hard by COVID. Would an announcement that they are still better at football than the average college football team in Texas mean much? Europe includes many economically weak countries. The chart I posted earlier shows Sweden vs countries far more similar. They did a slightly better by GDP and had far more cases, deaths and a longer first wave for it. That isn't groundbreaking to me.

If it basically goes away in Sweden and everywhere else gets pummeled by more waves, I will jump right in with all of you cheering their victory. But, that has not happened, yet. So far, they just had a big first wave, like US.
To be clear, I am not at all saying they are victorious. They made serious mistakes, like many countries did. They did a poor job, like a lot of countries, of protecting their elderly.

I do think, however, they provided the world information that keeping Elementary schools open can be accomplish without causing health problems. Other countries followed their learnings and reopened schools as soon as late April and May. In Oklahoma, in many school districts, we ignored that learning and have made decisions based on fear and influence from teacher unions.
 
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I don't know the numbers for all of Europe but I highly doubt they made it up. But, they specifically said "the average of all of Europe."

Well, what if the University of Texas football team got hit hard by COVID. Would an announcement that they are still better at football than the average college football team in Texas mean much? Europe includes many economically weak countries. The chart I posted earlier shows Sweden vs countries far more similar. They did a slightly better by GDP and had far more cases, deaths and a longer first wave for it. That isn't groundbreaking to me.

If it basically goes away in Sweden and everywhere else gets pummeled by more waves, I will jump right in with all of you cheering their victory. But, that has not happened, yet. So far, they just had a big first wave, like US.
Which will make this fall/winter very interesting. Seems like a pretty small chance that game changing therapeutics come on board, but otherwise we'll know soon enough how effective these policies were.

Also, isn't Sweden more shutdown than much of the US right now? Aren't bars, universities and high schools still closed?
 

steross

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To be clear, I am not at all saying they are victorious. They made serious mistakes, like many countries did. They did a poor job, like a lot of countries, of protecting their elderly.

I do think, however, they provided the world information that keeping Elementary schools open can be accomplish without causing health problems. Other countries followed their learnings and reopened schools as soon as late April and May. In Oklahoma, in many school districts, we ignored that learning and have made decisions based on fear and influence from teacher unions.
Is there data that shows this?
 
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Is there data that shows this?
As I mentioned earlier, Sweden’s COVID average age of death is near the oldest of any country at over 86 years. 88.6% of COVID deaths in Sweden come from people 70 years and older. To me that is staggering and really shows is virus is horrible for elderly.
But conversely the percentage of deaths under 50 years of age is less than 1%.

Only one death of the 5.7k deaths has been someone of school-age.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/
 
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steross

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steross

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As I mentioned earlier, Sweden’s COVID age of death is near the oldest of any country at over 86 years. 88.6% of COVID deaths in Sweden come from people 70 years and older. To me that is staggering and really shows is virus is horrible for elderly.
But conversely the percentage of deaths under 50 years of age is less than 1%.

Only one death of the 5.7k deaths has been someone of school-age.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/
I think the bigger point would be if sending kids to school increased their infection rates making them infect adults they live with. It appears from what @OSUPsych posted that isn't the case in those countries which is certainly good news.
 
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I think the bigger point would be if sending kids to school increased their infection rates making them infect adults they live with. It appears from what @OSUPsych posted that isn't the case in those countries which is certainly good news.
Only pointing this out because it feels like the distinction keeps getting missed. This is specific to elementary and maybe middle schools NOT high schools, which a lot of people seem to lump in with the other two.
 
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Only pointing this out because it feels like the distinction keeps getting missed. This is specific to elementary and maybe middle schools NOT high schools, which a lot of people seem to lump in with the other two.
I said elementary school specifically, not because of Sweden, although that was a nice coincidence. But due to distance learning and not being in school.
I think high school students can distance learn easier. I think it is very hard for teachers, parents, and students for distance learning for elementary students.
 
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I said elementary school specifically, not because of Sweden, although that was a nice coincidence. But due to distance learning and not being in school.
I think high school students can distance learn easier. I think it is very hard for teachers, parents, and students for distance learning for elementary students.
I'm biased because I have no idea how I'd manage that with my new kindergartner, but I agree. The dual online and in person setup has to be pretty brutal on teachers.
 

cowboyinexile

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I'm biased because I have no idea how I'd manage that with my new kindergartner, but I agree. The dual online and in person setup has to be pretty brutal on teachers.
First grade is about the cutoff. My oldest is about to start 2nd grade and the kids in his class can handle wearing a mask and social distancing at recess. A year ago I think the masks would have been fine but staying apart at recess would have been an issue. My youngest is in preschool and there is no way kids that age can keep a mask on all day, much less not be in close contact.

By first or second grade teachers can lay down the law and get kids to buy in, but for 4-6 year olds they don't have the attention span to listen.
 
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First grade is about the cutoff. My oldest is about to start 2nd grade and the kids in his class can handle wearing a mask and social distancing at recess. A year ago I think the masks would have been fine but staying apart at recess would have been an issue. My youngest is in preschool and there is no way kids that age can keep a mask on all day, much less not be in close contact.

By first or second grade teachers can lay down the law and get kids to buy in, but for 4-6 year olds they don't have the attention span to listen.
Funny you say that. My five year old handles a mask with absolutely zero problems and so far, reports are that her whole class does as well. Distancing apparently has also gone well with the exception of one kid out of 18 (teachers didn't say anything by my kid told us "he was having a hard day keeping seats open for the virus")
 
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https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1294610522101501957?s=21
Tried it and some is a bit strange. My county's cases have been falling for three weeks and is the only population center in my region with less than 10 daily cases per 100k people. It still said my community risk was very high compared to historical trends. The only thing I can think of is school is starting and college kids are moving in. Otherwise, I can't see how the risk is very high especially compared to our data since our first wave hit in April. We've only had one week since then that was better than this last week and that was the week of 4th of July when reporting was super slow.