Covid-19

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llcoolw

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A government mandated quarantined facility for the coronavirus is absurd. Are there takeaways that we learn for NZ, certainly. But comparing the US to an island country that is the size of California, population just above Oklahoma, and an economy not in top 50 of the world is kinda silly.

People are NOT saying that they don’t value human life by saying shutdowns should not occur. But other factors have to be taken into account. A CDC study just said 25% of young adults have contemplated suicide due to stress from lockdowns and the virus. We made a mistake shutting down in Q2, we can’t allow those that are proponents of mandated shutdowns to win that argument.

A poster mentioned Sweden. Sweden’s error was on their senior care. Their AVERAGE age of death was 86 years old. The kept elementary schools open to virtually zero problems yet due we can’t seem to learn from them and now we are harming our children in Oklahoma by going to distance learning.

Sweden also experienced a GDP drop way less than the US and most Europeon countries. And they have yet to experience a 2nd wave unlike other countries.
If Sweden would have protected their seniors they would be held as a potential standard for response to the virus.
I just keep arguing for the sake of it but you’ve got an important point. I’m worried about it too. The youngins. Is it fair to have to be locked down during your senior year? And your freshman college year? And sophomore year? If NZ can’t eradicate it, then no one can. Can we even protect them at all? Even after a 5 year lockdown, I’m assuming it’ll still be here. So all the hope is in a vaccination I guess.
 

llcoolw

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I don’t have all the links but Drudge has a good section on it. The Gates foundation has a simulation of over 60,000,000 deaths. There’s a story from the Chinese that the RO is at 3.8. Almost 8x more virulent than the flu. The videos coming out of the epicenter after the quarantine are scary AF. If true and not hoaxes that is. The videos of the drs and nurses overworked are heart wrenching. Like mentioned earlier, I don’t trust the Chinese government on this. Actions are louder than words. Universities are all closed now. The biggest celebration of the year is cancelled. While I’m not plumping my dogs up yet, I’m concerned.
FYI, this was me in January. I’m still in the same frame of mind but I keep trying to flip sides and be nonchalant and go back to my way of life. @RxCowboy and @steross keep me grounded pretty well. Until tomorrow. Thanks for the help.
 

steross

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FYI, this was me in January. I’m still in the same frame of mind but I keep trying to flip sides and be nonchalant and go back to my way of life. @RxCowboy and @steross keep me grounded pretty well. Until tomorrow. Thanks for the help.
That is better than the people that get fixated that they are right and then scour the internet to find things to support their confirmation bias. Look at my post from the beginning, too. I thought it was going to be a nothingburger because we were so readily able to stop SARS and MERS. My "Oh shit" moment was when they discovered asymptomatic spread. That changed everything.
 

llcoolw

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You are correct that this is nothing like ebola. It is very similar to SARS, another novel coronavirus. But based on current data SARS was more contagious (R0 2-5) and had a higher case fatality rate (15%).
The telling part is what was learned from the SARS outbreak which was an overwhelming success. SARS had an R0 high enough to cause a pandemic but was isolated and stopped, despite lack of transparency from the Chinese government. That seems to be improved this time. Saying that the CDC is not saying anything because the Chinese have "cut off the flow of information" is not even close to true as the Chinese are saying far more than in the past. And, with SARS, the Chinese did not flow information yet the CDC did warn.

Of course this has the potential to become something serious but the hyperbole out there is not based on what is known it is based on what is feared.
To the civilian mind, reading about SARS and MERS, those seem gone to most of us. So I reckon we thought the same about COVID-19.
 

steross

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To the civilian mind, reading about SARS and MERS, those seem gone to most of us. So I reckon we thought the same about COVID-19.
Public health officials were able to stop those BEFORE they go an endemic foothold through case tracking and temperature recording. Because they spread only after symptoms and nearly always had fever, it was easier to prevent.
 

llcoolw

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Public health officials were able to stop those BEFORE they go an endemic foothold through case tracking and temperature recording. Because they spread only after symptoms and nearly always had fever, it was easier to prevent.
Gulp. Shows just how easy it is to get. Regular folk like me don’t keep that in mind. We assumed it got beat and went away or stayed in place regionally.
 

steross

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Gulp. Shows just how easy it is to get. Regular folk like me don’t keep that in mind. We assumed it got beat and went away or stayed in place regionally.
Yep. This was my post from early Feb where I changed my mind about this thing and said it would not go away.........


OK, this really sucks. German businessman got Coronavirus in China then felt no symptoms but still had high viral load and infected others. If this is common, coronavirus will not be like SARS but will instead become part of our normal viral illnesses.


2019-nCoV Transmission in Germany, and First U.S. Case Described

Mary E. Wilson, MD reviewing Rothe C et al. N Engl J Med 2020 Jan 30 Holshue ML et al. N Engl J Med 2020 Jan 31

Virus was transmitted during a business meeting in Germany during presymptomatic infection. Details of the first U.S. case are provided in another report.

Identifying people infected with 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in order to isolate them will be essential to halt virus spread. Can people transmit infection during asymptomatic or presymptomatic infection?

In a case reported from Germany, Rothe and colleagues describe a 33-year-old healthy businessman (patient 1) who attended meetings with a Chinese business partner who was well during the meetings but became ill on her flight back to China. She was positive for 2019-nCoV. A few days later, patient 1 developed fever and productive cough but improved and returned to work three days later. Although he was afebrile and feeling well, he was identified as a contact of the Chinese patient and tested positive for 2019-nCoV on quantitative reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction assay (qRT-PCR). Follow-up testing in the subsequent 2 days showed high viral load (108 copies/mL in sputum), while he remained asymptomatic. Three other employees who developed symptoms tested positive for 2019-nCoV. One had contact with the Chinese business partner; the other two had contact only with patient 1. All were admitted to an infectious disease unit in Munich for isolation and monitoring.

Holshue and colleagues describe the first 2019-nCoV case reported in the U.S. A 35-year-old man had visited Wuhan, China, but not the Huanan seafood market and reported no contact with ill persons. He was seen at a clinic in Snohomish County, Washington. Onset of pneumonia was delayed (day 9 of illness). Nasopharyngeal samples were persistently positive for 2019-nCoV by qRT-PCR through at least day 12, and stool sample, tested on day 7, was positive. He was treated with remdesivir (an antiviral drug not currently FDA approved) on a compassionate-use basis and was recovering.

COMMENT
People who were infected with the related coronavirus, SARS CoV, generally developed fever before transmitting virus, so spread of SARS CoV could be stopped by screening for fever and isolating those potentially infected. These important new cases document that the 2019-nCoV can be transmitted in the absence of symptoms, which will make interruption of spread much more difficult. Still to be determined is how common asymptomatic transmission is.

The report by Rothe describes two generations of spread during infection that was presymptomatic or mild and self-limited. Whether the high-titer virus identified in sputum by qRT-PCR during convalescence was viable and transmissible remains unclear. The first case in the U.S. acquired infection from an unknown source in Wuhan and had persistent PCR positivity of respiratory samples.
 

TheMonkey

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Hawaii does have the lowest deaths per capita of any US state. And 2nd lowest cases per capita. Certainly indicates that being an island definitely helps.
They have the fastest growing infection rate in the country. Besides, I’m saying it’s a better comparison to NZ, not that being an island doesn’t help. It’s a good comparison of the US’s response effectiveness vs NZ’s.
 

Duke Silver

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Yes. Because some argue NZ’s approach doesn’t apply to the US since NZ is an island with a smaller population. Hawaii is an island with and even smaller population, yet rheyre experiencing a troubling spike way beyond what’s happening in NZ.
New Zealand: let’s shut down........ aaaaand done. We shut all incoming flights down. Lol. 10 lord of the rings nerds are going to be bummed
 

cowboyinexile

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Yes. Because some argue NZ’s approach doesn’t apply to the US since NZ is an island with a smaller population. Hawaii is an island with and even smaller population, yet rheyre experiencing a troubling spike way beyond what’s happening in NZ.
They had 350 cases yesterday which is a big spike but prior to this month they were doing a really good job of controlling it.

I have a couple of friends who live in Hawaii and based on their Facebook posts it's one island that is seeing most of it. It sounds like they are banning island to island travel right now.
 
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With the number of cases we have right now it is definitely absurd as it simply could not be done. If, on the other hand, we were somehow able to get down to zero cases for a couple of months and life returned to normal until 14 people got it, a quarantine facility to prevent those few from damaging the entire country would be far from absurd.

Our mistake as shown by the much lower rates in countries that shutdown properly is that we half-assed a shutdown. By far the worst way to do it. All the cost, little to no benefit.

As far as the love affair that COVID policy doubters have with Sweden: View attachment 85001
Good article just from last week. “Sweden’s outperforms other European countries during pandemic”

In the article, “adding to growing evidence that the decision to avoid full lockdown is paying dividends”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/05/swedens-economy-outperforms-european-countries-pandemic/


An interestingly this is from the New Zealand Herald this week (August 10th). Maybe New Zealanders are tired of the strict heavy-handed government approach? The NZ Herald article is talking about how Sweden is doing.
“On one key measure – percentage change in new confirmed cases over the past fortnight relative to the previous 14 days – Sweden is down more than a third.
This contrasts with sharp rises in neighbouring Denmark, Finland and Norway, along with countries such as Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK.
Meanwhile, the latest data suggests Sweden is suffering less severe economic trauma than most major European nations, while it has, almost uniquely among Western countries, kept schools open.“
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12355353
 
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TheMonkey

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New Zealand: let’s shut down........ aaaaand done. We shut all incoming flights down. Lol. 10 lord of the rings nerds are going to be bummed
Well, I’m glad they didn’t shut down a year earlier when I went there. Most amazing place I have ever visited, and I travel a decent amount. I hope to go back. The hardest part was the 25 hour flight each way. Definitely won’t do economy again.

By the way, this whole conversation made us reach out to some friends of ours in NZ and check on them. Of course, this lockdown is tough on the whole country, especially since they rely quite a bit on tourism. We found out some other things are happening personally for our friends that they requested we pray for. Real world stuff, unrelated to COVID. I’m glad we reached out.
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