Covid-19

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Binman4OSU

Legendary Cowboy
Aug 31, 2007
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Stupid about AGW!!
See...I read an article yesterday that said lock downs can help slow things down but there is really nothing that is going to contain this. It's just got to run its course...so the U.S. could potentially be ahead of the curve.
the unknown here is how long does immunity last after you get it...and can you catch it again...and if so..how long before you can catch it again.

We are running the first course of this race. There may be 2, 4, 12 more courses to run....we do not know. There could be 0. It may be a one and done thing (however most experts think it will be a seasonal thing at some point). It is possible the US is ahead of the curve for the 1st course of this, but maybe sprinting toward something worse. We just don't know
 

Pokit N

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the unknown here is how long does immunity last after you get it...and can you catch it again...and if so..how long before you can catch it again.

We are running the first course of this race. There may be 2, 4, 12 more courses to run....we do not know. There could be 0. It may be a one and done thing (however most experts think it will be a seasonal thing at some point). It is possible the US is ahead of the curve for the 1st course of this, but maybe sprinting toward something worse. We just don't know
Guys, I know things are bad right now...but I just want you all to know..
It's going to get worse. Worse than you can possible imagine.








:D
 

TheMonkey

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Not a gotcha thing. You accused me of putting words in your mouth. I walked you back through your own words to show that wasn't the case. You literally said it would be easy to compare schools. As for the timeframe you supposedly didn't give, once I'm done typing this, I'm going to bang my head into a wall for having this conversation. Clearly there's no implication of time there. Maybe I mean two months from now after I've had time to analyze the data on its impact on my life. Again, I'm only pointing this out because you accused me of putting words in your mouth. It's an anonymous message board and I assume we mostly type this in haste.
Sorry you’re caught up in this, but I’m glad I’m not the only one who finds BayArea to be off-base. He does a bit of gaslighting (I never said that, I wasn’t doing that, you’re putting words in my mouth, etc.). I found him to be confusing and couldn’t follow his logic. When I implied he might be baiting people, he blocked me. Maybe I was onto something?

edit: @OSUPsych looks like you worked through it. Kudos to both of you. It’s weird that he took the nuclear option with me, but I’m happy to see cooler heads prevail this time.
 
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May 4, 2011
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Charleston, SC
I don’t type anything in haste. My posts are pretty few and far between compared to others that are making dozens of posts per day. I usually read and reread what I’m posting because I don’t want to be someone mindlessly throwing stuff out there. I try to put thought into what I’m posting.

I accused you of putting words in my mouth because you said I was predicting a fast time frame and nowhere in any of my posts did I do that. Literally you said this:

“You stated we'd know a lot more about the effectiveness of masks soon from schools starting soon.”

And I said nothing about knowing more soon. How that isn’t putting words in my mouth is beyond me. As for you walking me back, that kind of statement sure sounds like you’re playing a game of gotcha. I’m not trying to walk anyone back on anything. I simply want to have a fun back & forth conversation. I stand by everything I’ve posted. You thinking I’ve walked something back is merely me allowing for the fact I could be wrong. I don’t claim to be an expert on Covid. Nobody that posts here is anything close to an expert. There are a few that think they are but they have gotten so much wrong along the way that they look like absolute fools and proven themselves to be kooks. Giving your opinion and freely admitting you could be wrong is how you avoid going to kookville.
Go back and reread my last response. I never said you walked it back (I walked you back through your posts) and explained pretty clearly how you implied/stated a quick timeframe (note the underlining and italics, then read "once schools open" in your prior post). I get that one interpretation of what you wrote isn't what you meant.

Back to the main point, I still disagree that it's going to be easy, even with time, to use schools as tests of mask effectiveness. Most schools will use them and I'll even set data reporting issues aside (still a huge issue since schools don't typically have data people for this kind of task). There aren't a whole lot of large districts that don't require them, particularly within the same region where you'd need to compare them to isolate school policies from community policies. Someone will still do it, but many of those comparisons will be garbage and it will take someone with legit skills to do a good job of it.
 
May 31, 2007
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Go back and reread my last response. I never said you walked it back (I walked you back through your posts) and explained pretty clearly how you implied/stated a quick timeframe (note the underlining and italics, then read "once schools open" in your prior post). I get that one interpretation of what you wrote isn't what you meant.

Back to the main point, I still disagree that it's going to be easy, even with time, to use schools as tests of mask effectiveness. Most schools will use them and I'll even set data reporting issues aside (still a huge issue since schools don't typically have data people for this kind of task). There aren't a whole lot of large districts that don't require them, particularly within the same region where you'd need to compare them to isolate school policies from community policies. Someone will still do it, but many of those comparisons will be garbage and it will take someone with legit skills to do a good job of it.
Ok sorry for misunderstanding what you meant by walking back.

As for the comparison, I did some searching and there are some decent size schools out there doing in classroom and not requiring student masks. I think at least somewhere out there we can find a comparison point. The key is as you said, will we get any reporting from those schools?
 
May 4, 2011
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Charleston, SC
Ok sorry for misunderstanding what you meant by walking back.

As for the comparison, I did some searching and there are some decent size schools out there doing in classroom and not requiring student masks. I think at least somewhere out there we can find a comparison point. The key is as you said, will we get any reporting from those schools?
Short answer is yes, at least for public schools, but how often and what kind is going to be a challenge.

Relatively easy example, to have good comparisons, you need the ability to compare schools like Jenks, BA, and Owasso with similar geography and community-level exposure. All of those schools have mask mandates. Because of that you're left having to make a comparison to schools in an entirely separate community, which will muddy the waters because the community spread is going to vary dramatically across time both within and between the communities. You'd have to compare then to mostly rural schools, at least from what I can find in Oklahoma. So, you're left with the decision of making comparisons across states or across very different communities and schools (Checotah vs. BA). Just that one complication alone will require a decent data analyst to make adjustments for things like rates of increase in the community vs school and then compare the schools across those communities. That's just one issue and doesn't include things like testing availability, positivity rates, reporting practices, etc. This would be different if you at least had some decent pre-post data, but they're mostly starting the year with masks. You can't make the sorts of comparisons that we can with communities where you can test the change in rates of infection before and after mask mandates and then search for case controls that either did it later or not at all. So, in this case, you'd only get a decent comparison if and when a school starts the year without masks and then switches to having them later.
 
May 31, 2007
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Short answer is yes, at least for public schools, but how often and what kind is going to be a challenge.

Relatively easy example, to have good comparisons, you need the ability to compare schools like Jenks, BA, and Owasso with similar geography and community-level exposure. All of those schools have mask mandates. Because of that you're left having to make a comparison to schools in an entirely separate community, which will muddy the waters because the community spread is going to vary dramatically across time both within and between the communities. You'd have to compare then to mostly rural schools, at least from what I can find in Oklahoma. So, you're left with the decision of making comparisons across states or across very different communities and schools (Checotah vs. BA). Just that one complication alone will require a decent data analyst to make adjustments for things like rates of increase in the community vs school and then compare the schools across those communities. That's just one issue and doesn't include things like testing availability, positivity rates, reporting practices, etc. This would be different if you at least had some decent pre-post data, but they're mostly starting the year with masks. You can't make the sorts of comparisons that we can with communities where you can test the change in rates of infection before and after mask mandates and then search for case controls that either did it later or not at all. So, in this case, you'd only get a decent comparison if and when a school starts the year without masks and then switches to having them later.
There are so many people out there gung ho about doing these kinds of studies. I’m confident someone is going to do the work. Maybe it won’t be Oklahoma, but I think someone is going to look at the various approaches and do an analysis for public consumption. And I just think it’s going to be fascinating as it’s the closest thing to the various approaches being used at relatively the same time and starting at zero so to speak. That’s just my $0.02. I’ll let you have the last word.
 
May 4, 2011
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Charleston, SC
There are so many people out there gung ho about doing these kinds of studies. I’m confident someone is going to do the work. Maybe it won’t be Oklahoma, but I think someone is going to look at the various approaches and do an analysis for public consumption. And I just think it’s going to be fascinating as it’s the closest thing to the various approaches being used at relatively the same time and starting at zero so to speak. That’s just my $0.02. I’ll let you have the last word.
As long as you understand it's not easy and won't be straightforward. As much as someone is going to do a decent job, you're likely to hear garbage reports on both pro and anti mask sides that use just a few schools or even just one. Those will not be good tests of mask effectiveness.
 

TheMonkey

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So many are calling this an open admission of Trump to participate in voter suppression during COVID

Hard to argue with them based on the article. I’d be interested in seeing/reading the whole interview to ensure context though.

AT first blush, this seems like a tactic to corner Democrats. He knows his base is less likely to use mail-in. And if the Democrats start telling people to show up physically, he’ll pint it out as hypocrisy and an admission the virus isn’t as bad as they claimed. He’s playing chess, in my opinion.
 

Binman4OSU

Legendary Cowboy
Aug 31, 2007
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Stupid about AGW!!
Friend of mine is a teacher at a local school district. She sent a pic of her classroom with the tape line on the floor that marks how far apart she is supposed to place the desk.. individual desks

She is expected to have 35 students every hour for 5 hrs during the day. She said it is not possible to fit 35 desks in this space with 6ft distance

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