Covid-19

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Rack

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500,000 - 800,000+ people attend the Rose Parade each year in person. Pasdena isn't large enough to social distance that many people

I was at this thing this January. People literally line up on the streets days in advance and camp out to get spots to watch and they end up being 6-7 rows deep in some spots
Yep, my first memory is sleeping in our camper basically tailgating waiting on the parade. I've watched it every year of my life since that time (50 years)...just seems odd they canceled so soon, but as others have said I'm sure it's because sponsors can't afford to do it so Dr. Pepper isn't sponsoring a float maybe for the first time in 100 years...Just depressing this time of covid and things like this make it even more real that they think it will continue on for a LONG time.
 

Rack

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You are right 2020 sucks so why start off 2021 doing the same dumb things that helped make 2020 suck.
Does anyone really think a vaccine is going to be approved, produced and administered to the population in 5 months because that is what will have to happen. No, Americans aren't helpless but a lot of us are just plain dumb and because of that, people of reason have to make decisions to keep the dumb Americans from ruining everyone else's life. Sorry, no parades, no movies, no restaurants, no sports because dumb America will not wear a mask and social distance. 5 months is not going to change the mind of dumb America so in reality they have become the real "The Cancel Culture."
To have 25 friends that have had Covid is remarkable in itself because I have many friends in that 50's age group and none have had it. We are cautious and follow the guidelines and it seems to be working for us.
That aside, I'm glad your friends and family have recovered and I too hope that Governor Stitt recovers as well.
Maybe it will open his eyes to the reality that sick people can't sustain the economy and will consider a less cavalier and more scientific approach to handling this crisis.
Where do you live? I'm in Tulsa and I know a LOT of people...However, most of my friends and family have not had it...just some, like my brother and his family. I go to a big church with about 1,800 members and know most of them and my wife is also a teacher. These two groups of people are pretty tight knit and that is where I know of people who have had the virus (this includes my doctor among many others). I know someone from the Kanakuk camp in Missouri infected group as well. Nearly all of them are older parents of larger families (anywhere from 2 to 9 kids each) with older teens. Don't know anyone at work here at the facilities who has had it or at our main real estate office either. But even travelers like myself that I'm friends with haven't been sick yet, I think, because we wear mask and social distance pretty diligently is keeping us safer. So yeah, you are right that those who have been more carless with it and have bigger more tightly knit families are the ones who have had it so far (I'm currently an empty nester). I'm almost to the point of thinking we are all going to just end up getting it at some point just by living here in the good ole USA. It may become unavoidable even if we lock ourselves down again...I'm upset with those that I know that got it due to carelessness just like you are and I blame many of them for a lot of this spread and for me now believing that it may just be inevitable for the rest of us to get it...if we haven't yet. Indeed I'm hopeful that the thing has a low death rate and that we get a vaccine and fast.

I don't think American's are dumb, I just think they are willfully rebellious, questioning, and freedom loving...even to the point of having covid parties....cray, cray...I agree, but I have a bit of that streak in me as well (minus the covid parties, that's just stupid), most Americans do, it's why we do things like bungee jump, 4x4, ski, scuba dive, and hunt and fish. We don't trust our government on either side and we are highly skeptical, especially when they don't trust each other. Fortunately or Unfortunately, it is who we are.
 
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RxCowboy

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It'll change again when he realizes how little threat it poses to his son.
You're making an assumption that "son" means "youngster". But Chuck Woolery is 79 and his could be in his 50s. At 79 I highly doubt that his son is 8, though he likely has grandkids that age. So, in other words, you're making assumptions to make it fit your narrative.
Gundysburner narrative.png
 

olderschool

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So Limbaugh says on the radio today that around 300 sites in Florida are reporting 100% positives and that it is vastly skewing the percentage positive number in Florida. I know, rush limbaugh...but what say ye? Also has a doctor in interview who says kids are more likely to die and do every year from influenza. What say ye?
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Darth Ryno

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False negatives are more of a problem. If she's symptomatic and has a positive test, she has it.
But if she has it and test positive twice...Ryno should let us know if that counts as one or two positives. I've heard it both ways from friends who say their son got positive test three times attempting to get a negative to start quarantine and go back to work...she CLAIMS that he was counted as 3 positives. Don't know if true...but it's a curious thing that deserves research.
It’s going to take a few more days to get the results back from the Chickasaw Nation. She’s showing zero symptoms right now.

I have her locked up in the pool house. Feel terrible for her :( Wish it was me and not her.


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Duke Silver

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It’s going to take a few more days to get the results back from the Chickasaw Nation. She’s showing zero symptoms right now.

I have her locked up in the pool house. Feel terrible for her :( Wish it was me and not her.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
13 more days and she has it licked
 

cowboyinexile

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One of my favorite terms I keep hearing about is the risk of spread in the meat packing plants.

Is meat packing plant code for strip clubs and asian massage parlors?
I can't tell if you are joking.

For this disease, packing plants were a recipe for disaster.

You have employees in close contact for their entire shift. They all take breaks at the same time in the same room. They all change in the same room.

Plus the vast majority of employees are either Hispanic or Asian immigrants and packing plants tend to be in rural areas so their social circles are the people they work with. A lot of people that work in those positions live together and travel to work together. In addition, there is an if I'm not dead I can work mentality (which to be fair, a lot of us had 6 months ago, myself included) so for someone who has a mild fever and cough, you pop a couple of dayquil and go to work. As we have learned thats not the right mentality to have for this.

It's a situation where for a bunch of people that work there, social distancing during their waking hours is impossible.
 

PanhandleCowboy

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I can't tell if you are joking.

For this disease, packing plants were a recipe for disaster.

You have employees in close contact for their entire shift. They all take breaks at the same time in the same room. They all change in the same room.

Plus the vast majority of employees are either Hispanic or Asian immigrants and packing plants tend to be in rural areas so their social circles are the people they work with. A lot of people that work in those positions live together and travel to work together. In addition, there is an if I'm not dead I can work mentality (which to be fair, a lot of us had 6 months ago, myself included) so for someone who has a mild fever and cough, you pop a couple of dayquil and go to work. As we have learned thats not the right mentality to have for this.

It's a situation where for a bunch of people that work there, social distancing during their waking hours is impossible.
I live in meat packing country and posted this the other day. It is strange that we were the national news months ago when we spiked, but since the death rate was so low in our area and didn’t overwhelm the hospitals, we aren’t news anymore. All I kept hearing was Texas County was an epicenter in Oklahoma, but the deaths never followed. We haven’t seen a spike since and I can tell you that it is like life is back to normal in this area. It will be interesting to see if we see a resurgence of cases.


I will say that I don't have any first hand experience with Covid and I live in a very rural area of the country. For me, grasping all of the information from where I live is tough to do. My area went thru the spike with positive tests early on with the packing plants. The county I live in has had 32 positives and 0 deaths. I see all these numbers across the country with death rates that are way higher than the seasonal flu. I went and looked at the counties affected in my area and for some strange reason the death rate is more closer to the seasonal flu.

Beaver County OK - 32 Positives/0 Deaths
Texas County OK - 1005 Positives/6 Deaths (packing plant)
Seward County KS - 1048 Positives/2 Deaths (packing plant)
Ford County KS - 2028 Positives/10 Deaths (packing plant)
Finney County KS - 1604 Positives/10 Deaths (packing plant)

Total - 5717 Positives/28 Deaths .49% Death Rate

My area has a .49% death rate compared to the national reported percentage of around 4% (usafacts.org).

I have been to all of these counties and the percentage of mask wearing is at best 20%. Our area became national news as big hotspots, but the deaths didn't follow so now we are no longer mentioned.

Any reason why my area hasn't seen anywhere close to the same death rate?
 

cowboyinexile

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I live in meat packing country and posted this the other day. It is strange that we were the national news months ago when we spiked, but since the death rate was so low in our area and didn’t overwhelm the hospitals, we aren’t news anymore. All I kept hearing was Texas County was an epicenter in Oklahoma, but the deaths never followed. We haven’t seen a spike since and I can tell you that it is like life is back to normal in this area. It will be interesting to see if we see a resurgence of cases.
I'm pretty sure you got an answer when you posted this in the AV and the person that did knows way more about this than me.

That being said IDK. I had two packing plants near me run into issues with this and although the infection rate was insane (I think for a day or two Sioux Falls had the highest rate of new cases in the nation) there weren't a lot of deaths with either. I'm guessing it was because the workforce is younger and healthier so the death rate is lower and they tested everyone so they picked up a bunch of asymptomatic cases at a time when only people who were seriously ill were being tested.

In my mind that's a good thing. We know that as bad as this thing can get, it's probably not that bad initially for most of us. The downside is it gets bad for enough people to overwhelm our medical system and that is when people who may otherwise recover die. We also don't know what the long term consequences of this are. Viruses are weird-you catch herpes and you get random flare ups for life. You get chicken pox and 20 years later, you get shingles. There is evidence kids with a mild case of this have a major case of something else later. And adults, immunity is a question mark so no telling what survivors will experience in the next 20 years.
 

PanhandleCowboy

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I'm pretty sure you got an answer when you posted this in the AV and the person that did knows way more about this than me.

That being said IDK. I had two packing plants near me run into issues with this and although the infection rate was insane (I think for a day or two Sioux Falls had the highest rate of new cases in the nation) there weren't a lot of deaths with either. I'm guessing it was because the workforce is younger and healthier so the death rate is lower and they tested everyone so they picked up a bunch of asymptomatic cases at a time when only people who were seriously ill were being tested.

In my mind that's a good thing. We know that as bad as this thing can get, it's probably not that bad initially for most of us. The downside is it gets bad for enough people to overwhelm our medical system and that is when people who may otherwise recover die. We also don't know what the long term consequences of this are. Viruses are weird-you catch herpes and you get random flare ups for life. You get chicken pox and 20 years later, you get shingles. There is evidence kids with a mild case of this have a major case of something else later. And adults, immunity is a question mark so no telling what survivors will experience in the next 20 years.
I did kind of get an answer from him. He couldn’t really explain it either though. It is definitely a strange virus. We don’t have the best health care systems out here either, so the quality of care isn’t the greatest which I thought wouldn’t have favored us. The national guard was mass testing so they did catch a lot of people who didn’t know they had the virus, but they were also living as you described that demographic does (big family units from old to young) so it is strange we didn’t see the bad side of it. I imagine there are even more people in our communities here that also had it but don’t work at the plants so never knew it. That would bring the death rate down even more. Just an example is a 85 yr old pastor in our area who tested positive but only found out he had it because he was having a procedure done. He had no symptoms.
 
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Good News: Phase 1 vaccine study reported July 15.. New England Journal of Medicine
'We report interim findings from this phase 1 clinical trial of the mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 vaccine encoding a stabilized prefusion spike trimer, S-2P. Experience with the mRNA platform for other candidate vaccines and rapid manufacturing allowed the deployment of a first-in-human clinical vaccine candidate in record time. Product development processes that normally require years10 were finished in about 2 months...."
 
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All true...but if positives are being counted more than once numerous times that MIGHT be an issue in terms of decision making for things like football and travel and gatherings even with strong mask mandates. Certainly and conversely the number of negatives would be effected as well. I would think it would be better to count each person as either a case or not but not twice unless they test negative and then positive as that should be counted as one case of the virus and not a negative. But if someone test positive four times and negitive once over the course of one Illness period, it shouldn’t be counted as 3 positives during that illness period. Same for negatives. Right??
I would hope that the people reporting the data have enough experience to place the word DISTINCT after the word SELECT in their data queries. However, if they arent creating reliable unique identifiers with each person tested, we could have all sorts of tomfoolery going on with the data.

Also, mentioned it somewhere else, but I believe that there is a lot of b.s. going on with some of the testing centers. i.e. tons more positive tests than what is reality due to some inside political motivations of the testing centers. Also, how much cross contamination is happening with the volumes of tests being run with these labs? You cant tell me that the reagent use is flawless in these centers.
 

steross

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California just released a new report (July 12th) on cases and deaths from COVID. Of the ~9M youths under 18 years old , there have been ZERO deaths. Repeat ZERO deaths out of 27k cases for youths under 18.

Total deaths in the state is 7.1k. Only 450 of those below 50 years old. 77% of deaths are over 65 years of age. With 56% of total being over 75.

Other interesting stats:
1) The age group with highest percentage of cases is 18-34 year olds. 115k of the 337k statewide cases are in that group (35%). Yet only 83 deaths.

2) 47% of California is under 35 years old. Yet only 83 deaths.

This data matches New York data. This data matches UK data. Why, why, why would we close schools???

It seems like both sides are ignoring science. On one side we have the tin-foil hat group that thinks COVID is a myth and on the other side we have the fear-mongerers who treat this like everyone is an 85 year old invalid.
Sort of like if inner city gangs went to the suburbs and shot older people instead of each other so we listed the death rates of inner city gang members and said, “Gee, this isn’t such a big deal.”