Covid-19

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Oct 7, 2008
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Ok, not a trick question, but a real one...How do we determine waves? When does a first wave end and second begin? Why, when cases were down, weren't we over the first wave? I would guess NYC might be past their first wave...no? Thanks in advance.
Yep, NYC is past their wave. Most of the northeast US is doing well.
 

Rack

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Oct 13, 2004
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Yep, NYC is past their wave. Most of the northeast US is doing well.
I would guess we sort of avoided it at the same time as NYC because we reacted very strictly at first...and we thought we were totally out of the weeds but we weren't...so we had a celebration and a rally and some protest and some riots...and damn if we aren't having a wave now. Is it mask or just being stupid? I think we all agree these events, the lot of them, sans mask were STUPID and have help lead to our current problems.
 

Deere Poke

I'd rather be in the woods
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Feb 13, 2014
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Bixby-Bristow OK
I would guess we sort of avoided it at the same time as NYC because we reacted very strictly at first...and we thought we were totally out of the weeds but we weren't...so we had a celebration and a rally and some protest and some riots...and damn if we aren't having a wave now. Is it mask or just being stupid? I think we all agree these events, the lot of them, sans mask were STUPID and have help lead to our current problems.
You can go look at daily charts for the areas having the biggest spikes and they directly correlate with the days they had the most people in the streets. Lots of protest 14 to 20 days later wow it's spiking. The democratic run places are adding fuel to the fire and encouraging protest to keep the spike going so they can put the brakes back on the economy. It's 100% politics at this point to try to influence the elections.
 

Deere Poke

I'd rather be in the woods
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Feb 13, 2014
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Wow this guy is over the top. We know the death rate with children is almost non existent. It's more dangerous to send them to school every year during the flu season which kills a higher percent of children. We do that as a country every year with no thought given to it.

This virus would put older teachers at much higher risk and we would have to do something to protect them.
 
May 4, 2011
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Charleston, SC
We need to be more careful about schools, not just rush into it, and get our cases under control, but both of those numbers are likely too high, especially for kids under 10 (assuming you're talking about a similar testing strategy that appropriately over samples symptomatic cases). In Texas, there have been 1721 cases among children between 1 and 20. Despite how terrible they're doing, that's a total prevalence of .000226 for the entire outbreak so far. Their CFR (uses only confirmed cases) is 0 in that age range. They'd have to have about 8 deaths without adding any cases in that age range to reach the stated .5% CFR. You'd have to assume schools will accelerate both symptomatic case and deaths more than 1000x. It's a similar story in every place with a bad outbreak, including NY who was way behind on testing when their outbreak started. Their rates for 18 and under are .4% prevalence and a CFR of .0002% with the new inflammatory condition as the primary source of deaths. The deaths would be tragic and likely would happen, but let's not be disingenuous with the scale.
 

RxCowboy

Has no Rx for his orange obsession.
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Nov 8, 2004
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Wishing I was in Stillwater
Their rates for 18 and under are .4% prevalence and a CFR of .0002% with the new inflammatory condition as the primary source of deaths. The deaths would be tragic and likely would happen, but let's not be disingenuous with the scale.
The caveat here is that we have no idea what the prevalence or CFR is going to look like when we put masses of kids into confined spaces for 8 hours a day, 5 days a week.
 
May 4, 2011
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The caveat here is that we have no idea what the prevalence or CFR is going to look like when we put masses of kids into confined spaces for 8 hours a day, 5 days a week.
True, which is why schools need to have their s*** together and states need to support them in working to limit size of contact circles and keeping transmission low. Still, given studies on transmission dynamics, especially in those 10 and under, the bigger worry is teachers. Their point prevalence could reach 5% in a bad outbreak. There are nowhere near enough subs to cover that, let alone legit worries about deaths.
 
Mar 11, 2006
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Doctors are saying schools should open and kids should go back to school. One side is completely ignoring the experts. Schools should take precautions, spend money on cleaning, and practice distancing as much as possible in classrooms. Also, those with special conditions should look for alternative plans. But schools need to open.

Being out of schools is not going to keep young people from congregating. I just left a gym with about 40 youths in the gym playing basketball.
 

cowboyinexile

Have some class
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Jun 29, 2004
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Please don't lump me together with crazy people who don't believe in the virus or won't wear mask to protect others...that's not me, even though I can sound that way sometimes when arguing points about the politics involved in this.
The majority of the things you say here are in line with the viewpoints of many who haven't taken this seriously because of their political viewpoints. If you're saying the media is lying to get Trump and it's really not so bad, turning around and virtue signaling by saying I hope your patients are all ok doesn't change that.

Maybe you should take a step bad and think about why you can't seem to trust what is right in front of you.
 

Rack

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Oct 13, 2004
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The majority of the things you say here are in line with the viewpoints of many who haven't taken this seriously because of their political viewpoints. If you're saying the media is lying to get Trump and it's really not so bad, turning around and virtue signaling by saying I hope your patients are all ok doesn't change that.

Maybe you should take a step bad and think about why you can't seem to trust what is right in front of you.
So virttue signaling the virtue single is wrong?? I just thought I was being a nice human being. I really do hope his patients are alright.
 
Nov 18, 2011
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I would guess we sort of avoided it at the same time as NYC because we reacted very strictly at first...and we thought we were totally out of the weeds but we weren't...so we had a celebration and a rally and some protest and some riots...and damn if we aren't having a wave now. Is it mask or just being stupid? I think we all agree these events, the lot of them, sans mask were STUPID and have help lead to our current problems.
Has the Northeast, and Europe for that matter, reached a “Herd immunity”? As opposed to the south that locked down very early on with less exposure? We know now there are likely 10 -25 times or more cases than are being confirmed by tests. With so many asymptomatic cases confirmed only because of jobs, athletics, etc, how many go unconfirmed or mildly symptomatic unconfirmed just because people don’t want or need to hassle with the test? New York and Massachusetts have lower daily rates than Oklahoma, yet they live and work on top of each other, use mass transit, etc. Same with the UK, where I’ve read and talked to co-workers that they mostly are not wearing mask.
 

Rack

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Oct 13, 2004
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Wow this guy is over the top. We know the death rate with children is almost non existent. It's more dangerous to send them to school every year during the flu season which kills a higher percent of children. We do that as a country every year with no thought given to it.

This virus would put older teachers at much higher risk and we would have to do something to protect them.
Where are these folks when we kill millions of unborn almost annually
 

Rack

Legendary Cowboy
Oct 13, 2004
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I was trying to give you advice. If you are incapable of taking a step back and saying maybe my views on this should change as we learn more then I'm not sure what to tell you.
My views on this are fine. I’m right in the middle. Mask are important to me but I’m not too blind to see the politics of it all and the overblown aspects of it as well. Certainly I know my fair share of those who have had it and I don’t want my elderly parents to get it. So far everyone I know of over 26 people, most in their mid fifties, have remained out of the hospital. Hopefully they didn’t infect elderly parents as their teens unknowingly infected them.
 
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