Covid-19

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cowboyinexile

Have some class
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Jun 29, 2004
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Mainly because that's what all the media is hyping. For instance, what's up with all the 100% positives in Florida in counties with at least 25 tests??
I'm not really sure the media is hyping anything at this point. 12% of Florida residents have been infected with this and the new infection rate isn't slowing down for a couple of weeks at least. They, along with Arizona and Texas may very well turn into the herd immunity guinea pig. The fact that a once in a century disease has turned into a partisan issue is sad, but with where they are at now isnt the time to question if the numbers are being manipulated for political purposes.

My suggestion is to stop worrying about the data and pray for people that live there. And pray that the rest of us have leaders capable of putting politics aside and are smart about this before we are in the same boat.
 
May 4, 2011
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False negatives have shown to be a bigger concern with our current testing. In addition, the risk of someone with the disease testing falsely negative and then either getting sick or spreading it is far more than the risk of a false positive which while not desirable is mostly inconvenient. Given that, why is your concern about inaccurate testing only about false positives? That is what you have mentioned each time.
I'm sure you already know, but it seems he thinks the increases in positive cases is inaccurate and/or overblown.

TBH, I can empathize. Communication about this whole thing hasn't been great. Several leaders have made this a partisan thing and if you don't have health data and/or medical training, what do you believe? Our partisan moment makes this worse, but 1918 saw partisan reactions (in the broader sense) despite being a less divided time.

To be clear, I don't think there is any real case for doubting the drastic rise in new infections. I also think people are too cavalier with this and clearly don't understand science as a process. At the same time, I try (and sometimes fail) to be patient and understanding with people who don't have that training. Still, I forget that I have coworkers who get all of their information from various news sites rather than directly from data, largely because they don't understand the data or where data come from. I still feel bad about losing it a bit when trying to explain to a family member that we were going to see phenomena like were seeing now, where some places are just now experiencing their real first wave and that you'd have dozens of places with different timings on their first wave because it's not just one outbreak for the entire US. It's a chained sequence of several. They were telling me in March about some smart person who said our overall population numbers were too low to even worry about and I snapped while trying to explain network transmission.
 

Rack

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My wife asked me this afternoon something intresting:

She asked why she never sees what our deaths per month from respiratory illness were in past years prior to the virus compared to what they are this year with Covid 19 added. I'm assuming they are much higher with Covid-19. But, I would think all the news outlets would be falling all over themselves reporting that to show it's shockingly higher. Does anyone know this information and can they post it in this thread? I would think that would be an interesting statistic to monitor.
 

wrenhal

Territorial Marshal
Aug 11, 2011
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Mainly because that's what all the media is hyping. For instance, what's up with all the 100% positives in Florida in counties with at least 25 tests??
I can't find where any county reported 100% positivity rate. What county and where did you find that?
Supposedly somewhere in the PDF below. The screenshot is from where a guy compiled the info into a sortable spreadsheet.
https://www.floridadisaster.org/con...6c50c07e26dfca/state_reports_latest_07_11.pdf


Sent from my Moto Z (2) using Tapatalk
 

RxCowboy

Has no Rx for his orange obsession.
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You're saying a tracer goes through and is constantly checking the possible false positives? How do they know? Is someone really still going through and testing the tests now to see if they are still say 75% correct vs now they might be getting only 50% positive due to ingredients and/or issues in productions?
My understanding is a contact tracer is just a virus detective, questioning where they've been and who they've come into contact with so that they can tie in and try to see where they were infected and who they might have infected themselves. That still doesn't seem like it is talking about what I am talking about. It seems the only ways to know of false positives, is to retest multiple times ultimately.
False negatives are a bigger problem. Generally, if someone is positive, they've got it.
 

RxCowboy

Has no Rx for his orange obsession.
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My wife asked me this afternoon something intresting:

She asked why she never sees what our deaths per month from respiratory illness were in past years prior to the virus compared to what they are this year with Covid 19 added. I'm assuming they are much higher with Covid-19. But, I would think all the news outlets would be falling all over themselves reporting that to show it's shockingly higher. Does anyone know this information and can they post it in this thread? I would think that would be an interesting statistic to monitor.
Because it's a government conspiracy to control you.

Actually, it's because those deaths generally aren't required to be reported to the CDC, unlike this particular situation where we've been dealing with a novel organism. We usually have to do modeling in order to get estimates based on the information the CDC gains through their own surveillance.

From the CDC:
1594635585826.png
 

Rack

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Oct 13, 2004
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Because it's a government conspiracy to control you.

Actually, it's because those deaths generally aren't required to be reported to the CDC, unlike this particular situation where we've been dealing with a novel organism. We usually have to do modeling in order to get estimates based on the information the CDC gains through their own surveillance.

From the CDC:
View attachment 83393
There should be a chart that list all deaths in American by cause for March 2019 compared to March 2020. This would directly compare death before vs deaths after. Not because I think it’s some sort of conspiracy or that I don’t think it’s real, but because it’s important information to know. In fact it’s one of the most important facts that is sadly not reported upon and would give more mental ammunition to fight the virus and logic to the sisuation. This is A question from my wife, not me. She is a school teacher and wants to know statistics for a more foundation on the death comparisons of the past for a specific month before this pandemic rate.
 
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Rack

Legendary Cowboy
Oct 13, 2004
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I'm sure you already know, but it seems he thinks the increases in positive cases is inaccurate and/or overblown.

TBH, I can empathize. Communication about this whole thing hasn't been great. Several leaders have made this a partisan thing and if you don't have health data and/or medical training, what do you believe? Our partisan moment makes this worse, but 1918 saw partisan reactions (in the broader sense) despite being a less divided time.

To be clear, I don't think there is any real case for doubting the drastic rise in new infections. I also think people are too cavalier with this and clearly don't understand science as a process. At the same time, I try (and sometimes fail) to be patient and understanding with people who don't have that training. Still, I forget that I have coworkers who get all of their information from various news sites rather than directly from data, largely because they don't understand the data or where data come from. I still feel bad about losing it a bit when trying to explain to a family member that we were going to see phenomena like were seeing now, where some places are just now experiencing their real first wave and that you'd have dozens of places with different timings on their first wave because it's not just one outbreak for the entire US. It's a chained sequence of several. They were telling me in March about some smart person who said our overall population numbers were too low to even worry about and I snapped while trying to explain network transmission.
I would guess you would be upset with types like @Binman4OSU then, and others who post biased news media articles all day long every stinking day to the tune of 6 negitive to 1 positive article?
 
May 4, 2011
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Supposedly somewhere in the PDF below. The screenshot is from where a guy compiled the info into a sortable spreadsheet.
https://www.floridadisaster.org/con...6c50c07e26dfca/state_reports_latest_07_11.pdf


Sent from my Moto Z (2) using Tapatalk
Actually reading the table, yes, there are labs that are only reporting positives, but they've been doing that the whole time. It actually happened more at the beginning of the pandemic. The table contains numbers for ALL positive and negative cases reported to Flordia ever, not just recently. This is not a new phenomenon and wouldn't affect the overall case increase or the positivity rate increase. It actually happened more at the beginning because many states weren't requiring or pushing labs to report negatives.

Doing some rough, quick math, it looks like these represent about .2% of the overall tests and about 1.5% of all positives. That means, it would have a minuscule effect on the overall positivity rate.

As a side note, unless someone is actually doing a deep dive on the numbers to explain and understand them, I would avoid taking any random guy's take on twitter. Having business data training is not the same as health data training (apparently this guy is a finance professor).
 
May 4, 2011
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Charleston, SC
There should be a chart that list all deaths in American by cause for March 2019 compared to March 2020. This would directly compare death before vs deaths after. Not because I think it’s some sort of conspiracy or that I don’t think it’s real, but because it’s important information to know. In fact it’s one of the most important facts that is sadly not reported upon and would give more mental ammunition to fight the virus and logic to the sisuation. This is A question from my wife, not me. She is a school teacher and wants to know statistics for a more foundation on the death comparisons of the past for a specific month bs This pandemic rate.
Well, it's from May, but they made these charts by comparing 2020 to an average of the past few years.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html

The CDC publishes this data by cause, but it would be too much work for a message board to break it out. I did a rough version for my family in May. Suffice to say, deaths from respiratory illnesses were way over their averages in some places where the virus had hit hard, but about average or just a touch below in places where it hadn't hit hard.
 

Rack

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But I thought it only killed old people who were going to die anyway?
PLEASE...Don't paint people who question things with being totally insensitive assholes, we just aren't all sheep. EVERY single death is tragic, but to ask for more information about them isn't being an asshole, is wanting more information. That Is it...btw, this one has little to no open information. Certainly I understand that HIPA makes it illegal to release that information at this point. With my wife being a teacher however, there are implications to this particular death (and others tragically among children) that may emotionally impact the classroom this fall. So eventually the public is going to need more information about this specific one.

Prayers to this family in dealing with this horrible loss of a child, I cannot imagine their pain.