Covid-19

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wrenhal

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Wait, the flu kills. Should we mandate that vaccine as well? Even though it's for the wrong strains some years?

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The flu has a lower R0 and the death rate is much lower (despite what the virologists and epidemiologists in this thread say).
But his argument is that because Covid kills, we have a duty to get the vaccine when it comes out. Thus it should be required of everyone. He didn't make a distinction as to how many, just that it kills.

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RxCowboy

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But his argument is that because Covid kills, we have a duty to get the vaccine when it comes out. Thus it should be required of everyone. He didn't make a distinction as to how many, just that it kills.

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"Duty" and "mandate" are different things. "Duty" means that the moral thing to do is to get the vaccine. "Mandate" means we don't care whether you think it's moral or not, we're going to force you to get it. The outcome of everyone getting the vaccine and achieving "herd immunity" is what makes the mandate moral. It is deontological versus teleological ethics.
 
May 4, 2011
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But his argument is that because Covid kills, we have a duty to get the vaccine when it comes out. Thus it should be required of everyone. He didn't make a distinction as to how many, just that it kills.

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You probably can't make a law requiring it and you definitely couldn't enforce that, but I'd expect a lot of employers and nearly all schools to require it once it's widely available. Obviously every healthcare employer is going to require it.
 
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Well, the wife and I went out to eat last night, so we're either doing our part to save the economy or being horribly irresponsible and spreading death across Omaha, depending on whether you're a democrat or republican now I guess.
 

RxCowboy

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You probably can't make a law requiring it and you definitely couldn't enforce that, but I'd expect a lot of employers and nearly all schools to require it once it's widely available. Obviously every healthcare employer is going to require it.
I recently started a clinical practice at a large healthcare system in the Miami Valley. I reckon when the vaccine is available I'll have to take it even though I'm not actually an employee.
 

SLVRBK

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Interesting article from The New York Post comparing responses of the Hong Kong Flu pandemic, which killed up to 4 million between 1968-1969, to COVID.
https://nypost.com/2020/05/16/why-life-went-on-as-normal-during-the-killer-pandemic-of-1969/

“Two government doctors, not even epidemiologists” — Richard Hatchett and Carter Mecher, who worked for the Bush administration — “hatched the idea [of using government-enforced social distancing] and hoped to try it out on the next virus.” We are in effect, Tucker said, part of a grand social experiment.


But the differences between how the world responded to two pandemics, separated by 50 years, is more complicated than any single explanation.


“If I were 48 in 1968, I would have most likely served in World War II,” said Moir. “I would have had a little brother who served in Korea, and possibly might have a son or daughter fighting in Vietnam.” Death, he said, was a bigger and in some ways more accepted part of American life.


I completely agree with the underlined part, our society is much more sensitive to death now.
 

Jostate

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Interesting article from The New York Post comparing responses of the Hong Kong Flu pandemic, which killed up to 4 million between 1968-1969, to COVID.
https://nypost.com/2020/05/16/why-life-went-on-as-normal-during-the-killer-pandemic-of-1969/

“Two government doctors, not even epidemiologists” — Richard Hatchett and Carter Mecher, who worked for the Bush administration — “hatched the idea [of using government-enforced social distancing] and hoped to try it out on the next virus.” We are in effect, Tucker said, part of a grand social experiment.


But the differences between how the world responded to two pandemics, separated by 50 years, is more complicated than any single explanation.


“If I were 48 in 1968, I would have most likely served in World War II,” said Moir. “I would have had a little brother who served in Korea, and possibly might have a son or daughter fighting in Vietnam.” Death, he said, was a bigger and in some ways more accepted part of American life.

I completely agree with the underlined part, our society is much more sensitive to death now.
We've become incredibly risk averse as a society, but the risks we fear are the ones with the most immediate, understandable consequences and those more touted by the talking heads on TV. The risk of recession or negative consequences from insane national debt don't scare most people as much as the immediate risk we can understand.

We are willing to submit to inconvenience and invasive searches on the 0.00000001% chance we die in an airplane from terrorists. We are willing to throw away the Bill of Rights and take the economy down a path we haven't seen in almost a century on the 270 out of a million chance we die from the big Woo.

We fear mass shootings but eat food that risks heart disease even though heart disease is far more likely to be the cause of death than a mass shooting. How would it impact our diets if every nightly newscast lead off with a story about heart disease and showed family members of someone who passed or had a stroke because they ate crap?
 

pokefan05

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Seems to be a very small % of people who are getting this thing more than 1 time.

https://twitter.com/TIME/status/1261378729177055232

Or crappy tests with a high enough false positive rate.

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THIS. The testing is an absolute joke. My wife works at a retirement facility and they we’re all tested, won’t get results back for two weeks...What is the point?! Average age of death in the 80’s? Probably 20-30 years longer than I’ll get. Yeah I’m gonna go ahead and move on with my life. The initial models were obviously wildly overstated, now to cover tracks, they have to inflate numbers by manipulating cause of death. Fact of the matter is, hospitals are NOT overwhelmed, social distancing was about slowing the transmission rate and allowing healthcare facilities the ability to procure enough supplies to handle new cases as the virus spreads through the population and we build up mass immunity over time. We are at the point where it’s time to open up and let the virus runs it’s course. We cannot wait on a vaccine, and that is never what staying home was about in the first place.


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RxCowboy

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The initial models were obviously wildly overstated, now to cover tracks, they have to inflate numbers by manipulating cause of death.
What were the conditions of the original Imperial College of London model? Were the conditions met, or did they change? How did the mitigation steps that were taken affect the model?
 
May 4, 2011
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Interesting article from The New York Post comparing responses of the Hong Kong Flu pandemic, which killed up to 4 million between 1968-1969, to COVID.
https://nypost.com/2020/05/16/why-life-went-on-as-normal-during-the-killer-pandemic-of-1969/

“Two government doctors, not even epidemiologists” — Richard Hatchett and Carter Mecher, who worked for the Bush administration — “hatched the idea [of using government-enforced social distancing] and hoped to try it out on the next virus.” We are in effect, Tucker said, part of a grand social experiment.


But the differences between how the world responded to two pandemics, separated by 50 years, is more complicated than any single explanation.


“If I were 48 in 1968, I would have most likely served in World War II,” said Moir. “I would have had a little brother who served in Korea, and possibly might have a son or daughter fighting in Vietnam.” Death, he said, was a bigger and in some ways more accepted part of American life.


I completely agree with the underlined part, our society is much more sensitive to death now.
That's a little misleading. We did do a lot of what we now call social distancing during the 1918 flu. The local paper here actually had a really good feature from their archives with articles from the time about the "10 week vacation" students had with social halls, schools, and churches closed. We were at the end of WWI at the time and antibiotics didn't exist. So, we were definitely used to death including from infectious diseases. The difference was that the 1918 flu was about 10x deadlier. Even according to that article only about 100k people died in the US over a two year period (from 1968 to 1970 according to them). We're at 85k in four months. Looking at where other countries who are ahead of us with similar approaches have stabilized (e.g., Spain at 100 deaths a day), you'd expect our minimum to be at least 400 deaths per day for the foreseeable future. If that lasts for only six more months, we're staring at 160k deaths by Nov with social distancing. Even accounting for population size differences, we'd exceed the 1968 death total in half the time.
 
May 4, 2011
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Charleston, SC
THIS. The testing is an absolute joke. My wife works at a retirement facility and they we’re all tested, won’t get results back for two weeks...What is the point?! Average age of death in the 80’s? Probably 20-30 years longer than I’ll get. Yeah I’m gonna go ahead and move on with my life. The initial models were obviously wildly overstated, now to cover tracks, they have to inflate numbers by manipulating cause of death. Fact of the matter is, hospitals are NOT overwhelmed, social distancing was about slowing the transmission rate and allowing healthcare facilities the ability to procure enough supplies to handle new cases as the virus spreads through the population and we build up mass immunity over time. We are at the point where it’s time to open up and let the virus runs it’s course. We cannot wait on a vaccine, and that is never what staying home was about in the first place.


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I posted the math on this earlier, but based on what we've seen from good seroprevalence studies (in fact, the math was based on an extensive one from Spain), we can expect a minimum of 660k deaths if it just runs its course.

In case you want a recap, Spain was at a minimum of 500 deaths per million with a seroprevalence of 5% nationally. Optimistically, they need 4x that prevalence to really tamp down transmission. That's 2k deaths per million or the equivalent of 660k deaths here, as a minimum if the virus just runs its course. Pessimistically, they need 14x, 7k deaths per million, translating to over 2mil deaths here.