Coronavirus pandemic non-socio-political discussions

  • You are viewing Orangepower as a Guest. To start new threads, reply to posts, or participate in polls or contests - you must register. Registration is free and easy. Click Here to register.

OrangeSpidey

Einstein
A/V Subscriber
Dec 11, 2004
4,617
2,049
1,743
39
Edmond, OK
2. 36 states are now reporting increases in cases. Only 2 (RI and CT) are reporting declines. When states announced they would be opening for Memorial Day, without having met the criteria for doing so, most Public Health professionals and Epidemiologists predicted a rise in cases 2-4 weeks later. Here we are. If those predictions continue, starting this week we should begin to start seeing increased hospitalization rates followed by increased fatality rates.
This will be really telling.
I guess my question is why SHOULD we expect hospitalizations and deaths to follow the same steep increase? From the numbers I’ve seen, most of the new cases are a younger age group and should be less severe. Hopefully high risk people are heeding the warnings and staying put and we won’t see a dramatic increase where hospitals are overrun.
 

Bowers2

Stackin' Joe's Cups
A/V Subscriber
Jul 31, 2006
7,928
5,757
1,743
Edmond
I guess my question is why SHOULD we expect hospitalizations and deaths to follow the same steep increase? From the numbers I’ve seen, most of the new cases are a younger age group and should be less severe. Hopefully high risk people are heeding the warnings and staying put and we won’t see a dramatic increase where hospitals are overrun.
The first "spike" was June 13ish. So you'd think we would already be seeing a spike in deaths. Hospitalizations are up, but I wouldn't say they are spiking.
 

RxCowboy

Has no Rx for his orange obsession.
A/V Subscriber
Nov 8, 2004
75,184
52,439
1,743
Wishing I was in Stillwater
July 1

COVID-19: Wednesday July 1st
Face shields, chromosomes, reopening, MIS-C and treatment shortages. This is a little heavy today so do a mental health check before reading, you may want to come back.

1. Face shields are currently being explored and may soon be recommended for public use. Face shields can be produced in the US (making them more easily accessible than store bought masks which are typically imported) and they reduce some of the things people complain about with masks. They are reusable, easy to clean and cover your entire face which reduces the risk of people rubbing their eyes, adjusting their mask or wearing the mask below their nose. Face shields are also more effective than masks at blocking the virus (when they fit properly). Numerous companies (Apple, Nike, GM and John Deere) have all begun producing face shields.

2. The ACE2 gene on the x chromosome may explain the greater fatality rate in males compared to females. This particular chromosome is believed to be related to blood pressure regulation. Women have 2 copies of that gene (because we are XX) men only have one (XY). Researchers believe this may be why men are more vulnerable to severe outcomes - as opposed to behavioral or social explanations. Additional research is being done to know for sure.

3. Roughly 15 states have had to roll back their reopening plans. Successful re-opening is dependent on several things: a)widespread and accurate testing, b)contact tracing, c)proper implementation of social distancing policies in public, d) the proper use of face masks, e) a vaccine, f) avoiding large gatherings. The reality of these items is that we don't yet have a widely available and highly effective/accurate test. Contact tracing is underway but most states are still severely understaffed and some people are refusing to cooperate. Social distancing policies are also being implemented but compliance and implementation is sporadic, face mask use is growing but still far below what is needed and a vaccine won't be ready for quite some time and once it is, it could be a year or more before there is enough to make it available to the general public. Most people are doing well with avoiding large gatherings, but it takes everyone. While this may seem discouraging at first read, it doesn't have to be. Working with the process instead of against it will expedite things. Complying with the above will help reduce the risk that we have to do another round of quarantine.

4. Remedesivir is doing well in drug trials thus far to prove its benefit in treatment of COVID. As mentioned before, there are significant advances being made in the areas of treatment. But as cases rise and more people need the medication - shortages are starting to happen and more are expected. In order to mitigate that, healthcare professionals are working on a plan for distribution of limited resources - the leading proposal currently is a lottery system that would be used to determine who gets the drugs.

5. A Retrospective cohort study out of China found that children are more likely to be asymptomatic and also less likely to respond to anti-viral treatment than adults. In related news, MIS-C is now being referred to by many as a "side effect" of COVID in kids-even if they are asymptomatic. There have been 1000 cases world wide and 300 known cases in the US. Of those, 80% required the ICU and 20% required a ventilator. The average age thus far has been 6-12 years.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It is very easy to become discouraged, frustrated and downright angry. I have heard lots of people say, "I really don't like people." And I get it. I have those days too. We all have days where motivation is hard to come by, being the light and showing kindness seems impossible and all we really want to do is cry in the shower. So go on and cry. Let it out. We are grieving and grief comes in waves. Just recognize that is where you are and that it is fleeting. Reach out to someone when you need to. Join in the collective sigh of exasperation. Then dust off, get up and yell, "Yo Adrian" (sorry, couldn't resist). If you can't, don't pretend. Tell someone, let us help. This too shall pass.