City Exodus? What say you?

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GodsPeace

Joshua 1:9
Aug 20, 2004
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Stillwater
#1
This video is based on Rogan, but it goes wider.

Do you think there will be a mass exodus from major metro areas?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IggHimQv68M&pp=wgIECgIIAQ%3D%3D&feature=push-fr&attr_tag=t3pjUxWVizzOsavA%3A6
 
May 4, 2011
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Charleston, SC
#4
This video is based on Rogan, but it goes wider.

Do you think there will be a mass exodus from major metro areas?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IggHimQv68M&pp=wgIECgIIAQ%3D%3D&feature=push-fr&attr_tag=t3pjUxWVizzOsavA%3A6
Define major metro. No mass exodus, but slower growth and some decline depending on what you're referring to. I don't think you'll see declines in relatively affordable areas that have lots of sprawl (looking at you, Houston). Telework will advance the decline some and become more common, but regular contact is hard to fully replicate in a virtual setting. This may shock a lot of people on this board, but COVID aside, many people like living in major metros. Both sides look at the other and think the other is miserable and backward. I personally am not happy living in either completely rural, even as small as Stillwater, or major metro areas. Neither is wrong, just not my cup of tea.
 
Sep 16, 2004
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#5
Define major metro. No mass exodus, but slower growth and some decline depending on what you're referring to. I don't think you'll see declines in relatively affordable areas that have lots of sprawl (looking at you, Houston). Telework will advance the decline some and become more common, but regular contact is hard to fully replicate in a virtual setting. This may shock a lot of people on this board, but COVID aside, many people like living in major metros. Both sides look at the other and think the other is miserable and backward. I personally am not happy living in either completely rural, even as small as Stillwater, or major metro areas. Neither is wrong, just not my cup of tea.
I’ve heard Raleigh, NC is growing like crazy.
 

steross

Bookface/Instagran legend
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Mar 31, 2004
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#6
I am back in OKC and casually trying to find a place in the city so I hope everyone else is trying to GTFO as prices are higher than I want to pay for OKC in the areas I want to be.
 

cowboyinexile

Have some class
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#7
How COVID affects this will be interesting going forward.

The flight from urban areas to more rural has been going on for a while. Look at north Texas. Frisco was a ghost town when I was a kid but now you get out of Dallas and 35 through Sherman is all suburban. People have been looking at cheaper homes and smaller school districts for well over a decade now and the amenities of urban life have followed.

With this, maybe the average person gives up a Coldstone around the corner for something even more rural. Maybe not as a decent paying job in the suburbs versus a very limited number of positions out in the country isn't worth the exchange.
 

Birry

Federal Marshal
Feb 6, 2007
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#8
I am back in OKC and casually trying to find a place in the city so I hope everyone else is trying to GTFO as prices are higher than I want to pay for OKC in the areas I want to be.
We're definitely trying to GTFO soon. OKC isn't terrible by any means, but we just want a place where druggies aren't stealing stuff off porches or checking car doors every night.
 
May 4, 2011
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Charleston, SC
#9
How COVID affects this will be interesting going forward.

The flight from urban areas to more rural has been going on for a while. Look at north Texas. Frisco was a ghost town when I was a kid but now you get out of Dallas and 35 through Sherman is all suburban. People have been looking at cheaper homes and smaller school districts for well over a decade now and the amenities of urban life have followed.

With this, maybe the average person gives up a Coldstone around the corner for something even more rural. Maybe not as a decent paying job in the suburbs versus a very limited number of positions out in the country isn't worth the exchange.
I think what you're talking about with Frisco is different from what some people mean with mass exodus. Frisco blowing up was more expansion of DFW. For the most part, that's pretty characteristic of Texas growth, out more than up. I don't see that changing, as long as housing is mostly affordable. That's a vastly different situation from NYC proper or the bay area where housing prices are absurd and completely unsustainable relative to median incomes in the area. Some of that is policy, but it's also density. I do think you see people moving from those centers to more remote suburbs or even different metros. Really, the only people doing that now are people who have jobs that allow remote work or aren't highly specified (nurses are needed everywhere). Those houses can't be built overnight, though and when this ends, and it will end, most of those people will still want to live in the city.

Maybe it's just my aversion to proclamations of massive change, but big change tends to happen slowly. Quick example, is cable TV still around? Wasn't it supposed to have collapsed by now? We are terrible at predicting big change.
 

Birry

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Feb 6, 2007
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#11
What area are you in?
"We live in the Urban Core", which is super fun in a lot of ways. Just have to be aware all the time. Lots of transient foot traffic. Which is fine 99% of the time. But it's a little gritty at times. We're near 23rd and Penn.

I grew up in the country, and while city life has some excellent benefits, I'm just finding more that I want something slower paced and more spread out.
 

steross

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#12
"We live in the Urban Core", which is super fun in a lot of ways. Just have to be aware all the time. Lots of transient foot traffic. Which is fine 99% of the time. But it's a little gritty at times. We're near 23rd and Penn.

I grew up in the country, and while city life has some excellent benefits, I'm just finding more that I want something slower paced and more spread out.
We aren't far. We are in an apt at 22nd and Classen.
 
Sep 29, 2011
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Breckenridge, CO
#13
Posted a version of this on another thread.

Families with means are fleeing the cities. Or at least looking for a vacation, weekend or temporary retreat. People are also seeking outdoor recreation (since indoor activity options are almost non-existent) in a location that’s not 100 degrees. In the face of the pandemic and real economic uncertainty, single-family mountain home values are skyrocketing. In Breckenridge, homes in-town are under contract for just over $1,000/sqft. Homes just out of town on bigger lots are going for over $850/sqft, up $50-100/sqft since last fall. Realtors and architects are seeing more traffic, interest and inquiries than ever before. The town is over-run with visitors every weekend. All the trailhead parking in the county and surrounding counties are completely full sunrise to sunset. It’s unbelievable.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

GodsPeace

Joshua 1:9
Aug 20, 2004
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#14
Good conversation, I love it.

I think the combination of Covid-19 soaring crime in some major cities in the US will enlarge the general movement out of cities. Cities and suburbs and rural areas come with a lot of benefits and drawbacks.

If Covid-19 level lockdowns and social distancing continue then the benefits of city living diminish rapidly. Cultural events, sporting events, concerts, etc become obsolete.

Joe Rogan is moving partly because of the massive restrictions on performing in LA while they are more relaxed in Texas, even if limited themselves. BTW, I think he has said Austin is really attractive to him. Surprise(he likes to experiment with drugs specifically psychedelics).

Most entertainment is going the way of streaming. I live in the boondocks(just outside of Stillwater) and if I am willing to pay I can watch most anything I want.

More people will be working from home from now on where it is doable because why not?

More people are homeschooling.

These all reduce the need to be closer to cities, and you don't have to go deep into the Alaskan back country to still get away from the City. We might see growth in some mid-sized towns like Frisco(mentioned above) that boom because of this type of movement.

Should be super interesting moving forward.
 
Nov 16, 2013
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tractor
#15
The last urbanites we had move next to one of our farms called the sherrif because of the noise of a tractor running at 2:00 AM.
How COVID affects this will be interesting going forward.

The flight from urban areas to more rural has been going on for a while. Look at north Texas. Frisco was a ghost town when I was a kid but now you get out of Dallas and 35 through Sherman is all suburban. People have been looking at cheaper homes and smaller school districts for well over a decade now and the amenities of urban life have followed.

With this, maybe the average person gives up a Coldstone around the corner for something even more rural. Maybe not as a decent paying job in the suburbs versus a very limited number of positions out in the country isn't worth the exchange.
Build that billboard, they need to stay urban, they just don't understand country rules.
 
Sep 16, 2004
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DFW
#16
More people will be working from home from now on where it is doable because why not?

More people are homeschooling.

These all reduce the need to be closer to cities, and you don't have to go deep into the Alaskan back country to still get away from the City. We might see growth in some mid-sized towns like Frisco(mentioned above) that boom because of this type of movement.

Should be super interesting moving forward.
And, with all it’s flaws, we’re figuring out how to do remote schooling. So, why do you have to live in a certain geography to be taught by good teachers? That may change.
I think what you're talking about with Frisco is different from what some people mean with mass exodus. Frisco blowing up was more expansion of DFW. For the most part, that's pretty characteristic of Texas growth, out more than up. I don't see that changing, as long as housing is mostly affordable. That's a vastly different situation from NYC proper or the bay area where housing prices are absurd and completely unsustainable relative to median incomes in the area. Some of that is policy, but it's also density. I do think you see people moving from those centers to more remote suburbs or even different metros. Really, the only people doing that now are people who have jobs that allow remote work or aren't highly specified (nurses are needed everywhere). Those houses can't be built overnight, though and when this ends, and it will end, most of those people will still want to live in the city.
A few years ago, we bought our home in Prosper, just north of Frisco. We couldn’t get the kind of home we wanted in Frisco within our budget. One of my clients is a developer. He said there are over 35k permits approved for homes being built in Celina just north of us. People are opting for places further out like Gunter and Van Alstyne to get away from the congestion. They can’t outrun it.
 

Birry

Federal Marshal
Feb 6, 2007
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#18
Given the length of time I've been working from home, and how I've been just as (if not more) efficient in this setting, me and my wife are definitely considering moving up to an hour outside of OKC and pitching the idea of me working from home 3-4 days per week, and only coming to the office once per week or as needed. I would also have to make the trip for client meetings and site visits, but it's opened the door for us to explore a LOT of new living situations (particularly school districts) further away from OKC than we would have originally considered. I fully expect my family to be well outside the larger metro areas within the next 5-7 years if my work allows it.
 
May 4, 2011
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Charleston, SC
#19
And, with all it’s flaws, we’re figuring out how to do remote schooling. So, why do you have to live in a certain geography to be taught by good teachers? That may change.

A few years ago, we bought our home in Prosper, just north of Frisco. We couldn’t get the kind of home we wanted in Frisco within our budget. One of my clients is a developer. He said there are over 35k permits approved for homes being built in Celina just north of us. People are opting for places further out like Gunter and Van Alstyne to get away from the congestion. They can’t outrun it.
They want to get away from the congestion but not leave the larger metro region. It's basically the same kind if suburb creation and expansion that's been happening for decades.

On the schooling thing, I don't see public schools becoming separated from geography any time soon. Tying schools to property taxes has become fiercely defended as way of "protecting" where education tax dollars go. Your alternate version where k-12 students can live almost anywhere and attend the school of their choice, almost certainly means a larger federal influence. And, we haven't even gotten into issues of extracurriculars (how do you do band and sports remotely?).
 

H2Orange

Sitting on the Group W bench
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Nov 17, 2007
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#20
We're definitely trying to GTFO soon. OKC isn't terrible by any means, but we just want a place where druggies aren't stealing stuff off porches or checking car doors every night.
Good luck. That happens everywhere. It has happened to us in Edmond, Stillwater, and Ardmore. I live in a very nice neighborhood in NE Edmond and people are always driving through checking car doors, taking packages off the porch, or things out of the mailbox. I lived in Coffee Creek in Edmond and catalytic converters we’re being taken off trucks parked in driveways.