'Change' In the Stock Market

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Mar 24, 2005
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#1
Guess the business world didn't like who was elected president. Usually, the stock market gets a little boost, but not this year. It tanked out horribly. The worst showing in history after a presidential election. Looks like there is not much confidence in the new guy's plans for all that new spending at the expense of investors and those that make the economy move and grow.
 

Cimarron

It's not dying I'm talking about, it's living.
Jun 28, 2007
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#2
Guess the business world didn't like who was elected president. Usually, the stock market gets a little boost, but not this year. It tanked out horribly. The worst showing in history after a presidential election. Looks like there is not much confidence in the new guy's plans for all that new spending at the expense of investors and those that make the economy move and grow.
Were you surprised?
 

steross

Bookface/Instagran legend
A/V Subscriber
Mar 31, 2004
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#3
This has been such an atypical year that I don't think that you can put much faith in a two day move.

A better question, if you want to look at historical data, is which historical indicator is going to win when in conflict. While you are correct that there is often a brief bump post election, the first year of a presidency is typically very bad for the market. On the other hand, we are already heading into that year with 30-40% losses. Bear markets historically are 20-40% losses in total. So, based on the history of bear markets, we should be near a bottom. Based on the election cycle, we should be heading into a decline. Which is correct? If I knew that, I wouldn't have to work!
 

Slugger926

Federal Marshal
Oct 19, 2004
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#4
Did anyone notice how much the International / Asian markets went up Tuesday night, and yesterday?

This doesn't suprise me with the proposed corporate, capital gains, and dividend taxes our PE is proposing. Everyone is moving towards percieved greener markets ahead of time.
 

okstateguy987

Teamo Supremo
May 7, 2007
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#5
Where is Obama going to find his new 5 million jobs? Are they going to be government jobs? Those don't count, because they don't add to the GDP.
 

llcoolw

Territorial Marshal
Feb 7, 2005
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Sammamish, Washington.Dallas, Texas.Maui, Hawaii
#6
Guess the business world didn't like who was elected president. Usually, the stock market gets a little boost, but not this year. It tanked out horribly. The worst showing in history after a presidential election. Looks like there is not much confidence in the new guy's plans for all that new spending at the expense of investors and those that make the economy move and grow.
I think the market has already taken Obama into account a long time ago. If McCain got elected it may have been worse or a super majority. What we are seeing is reaction to poor economic data. I think Obama may do some good on the short term(4years) for the market.
 

okstateguy987

Teamo Supremo
May 7, 2007
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#7
I think the market has already taken Obama into account a long time ago. If McCain got elected it may have been worse or a super majority. What we are seeing is reaction to poor economic data. I think Obama may do some good on the short term(4years) for the market.
How would reducing taxes on industry make a worse market?
 

Cimarron

It's not dying I'm talking about, it's living.
Jun 28, 2007
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#8
The market getting better in the next year would happen no matter who got elected.
 

H2Orange

Sitting on the Group W bench
A/V Subscriber
Nov 17, 2007
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#15
The market is reacting to weak earnings forecasts, weak retail numbers for October, and increasing jobless claims. In short, it is reacting to the same bad news it has been reacting to for several weeks.
 
Nov 1, 2004
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#16
I think the economies all over the world are just plain ugly ... and it seems to be getting worse. Cisco last night gave about as miserable a forecast as I've heard ... and said October was awful. Qualcomm tonight doesn't look much better. Back in late September ... right before the crash I thought the market might have a fast drop of 10% ... down to about 1100 on the S&P 500. Got the direction right, but boy did I miss the magnitude. I'd thought the absolute bottom wouldn't be any worse than 1000 and now it's just barely over 900 ... and based on the latest data ... probably going at least another 100 points lower over time.

All the market guys are gonna be looking closely at the unemployment report coming out tomorrow morning. Projections for 200k job losses last month ... but that was before Monday's manufacturing report ... which was the weakest in almost 30 years. I've become a believer that this downturn is gonna be worse than the one in the mid 70s and the one in the early 80s. Fed deficit just might hit a tril this fiscal year ... amazing when you think about it ... 7% of GDP ... w/o looking it up that oughta be the highest percentage since WWII (we ran 6% one year in the early 80s).

We've got massive headwinds in front of us as a country ... thanks to the entitlement timebombs that start going off in a big way between now and 2016. Our companies can compete just fine in the global marketplace assuming the politicians don't handcuff them with protectionist policy (restrictive trade policy) or higher taxes. Yes the investment banks messed up ... and the mortgage market messed up ... but those will be fixed. I'm not so sure about the entitlement payment stuff and DC policy ... and those have way more long-term structural risks.

Anyway, the market is probably mostly just factoring in what looks to be some more downward revisions to 2009 earnings estimates.
 
Oct 27, 2008
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#17
The market is reacting to weak earnings forecasts, weak retail numbers for October, and increasing jobless claims. In short, it is reacting to the same bad news it has been reacting to for several weeks.
And a ton of other things.

Obama not being one of them.

Have a feeling this is going to get old fast.

He's not even in office yet, but it's his fault!
 
Jun 9, 2008
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#18
Obama being elected has nothing to do with the market? Nothing? Are you kidding me? So you don't think that anyone who invests in the market pays the least bit of attention to the fact that it is looking very likely that corp taxes are going to increase, cap gains taxes are going to increase etc? I don't think Obama is at fault for the entire drop of the last couple of days but to think he has nothing to do with it........not buying that.
 

steross

Bookface/Instagran legend
A/V Subscriber
Mar 31, 2004
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#19
So, Ct, do you think we are going into superbear territory or are we just going to hang out around here trading ranged until the numbers shape up?
 

NYC Poke

The Veil of Ignorance
Sep 24, 2007
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#20
Obama being elected has nothing to do with the market? Nothing? Are you kidding me? So you don't think that anyone who invests in the market pays the least bit of attention to the fact that it is looking very likely that corp taxes are going to increase, cap gains taxes are going to increase etc? I don't think Obama is at fault for the entire drop of the last couple of days but to think he has nothing to do with it........not buying that.

Or maybe it had to do with the reports released today about job losses and weak retail sales? Do ya think? :rolleyes: