Bye Bye Trade War? China Plans $1 Trillion Buying Spree to Reduce US Trade Deficit

  • You are viewing Orangepower as a Guest. To start new threads, reply to posts, or participate in polls or contests - you must register. Registration is free and easy. Click Here to register.

NotOnTV

BRB -- Taking an okie leak
Sep 14, 2010
8,251
6,290
743
Gondor
#41
Ok, so regardless of whether you think Trump is racist towards latinos, exploits racism toward latinos, or loves latinos, I think it's pretty clear that his fate hinges on the economy. Which brings me back to my original assertion that the China confrontation is worth supporting, regardless of politics. Now that the trade war is starting to have impacts on the stock market, does he stick to his guns?? My guess is no. He is keenly aware of his razor thin margin for re-election, and I believe Trump will always put Trump first. So, my predictions are for an elimination or deferment of some tariffs, as well as an intense leaning on the FED to lower interest rates. The next few weeks will be interesting.
The stock and treasury market are being purely driven by emotion right now.
 

CaliforniaCowboy

Federal Marshal
Oct 15, 2003
16,319
2,579
1,743
So Cal
#42
Ok, so regardless of whether you think Trump is racist towards latinos, exploits racism toward latinos, or loves latinos, I think it's pretty clear that his fate hinges on the economy. Which brings me back to my original assertion that the China confrontation is worth supporting, regardless of politics. Now that the trade war is starting to have impacts on the stock market, does he stick to his guns?? My guess is no. He is keenly aware of his razor thin margin for re-election, and I believe Trump will always put Trump first. So, my predictions are for an elimination or deferment of some tariffs, as well as an intense leaning on the FED to lower interest rates. The next few weeks will be interesting.
The drop right now has more to do with the rate inversion and the FED, than anything else. Trump will stick to it and blame the Fed.

Such a development has occurred ahead of every U.S. recession of the last 50 years, sometimes leading by as much as 24 months.

I don't know if it (a bad economy) would be enough to NOT get him re-elected... but frankly, I think it would take MORE than another Great Depression to get one of these leftist socialists elected.

It's only mid-year, and there are other factors, besides the Market, which are all still pretty strong. (the Market is responding to the rate inversion).

China wants to try and hold out until after the next election, but I don't know if they're going to be able to do that.

China's factory output, retail spending and investment weakened in July, suggesting the world's second-largest economy faces downward pressure on growth.

China's factory output rose 4.8 percent over a year earlier, a marked decline from June's 6.3 percent. Retail sales growth slowed to 7.6 percent from the previous month's 9.8 percent
 
Last edited:

oks10

Territorial Marshal
Sep 9, 2007
8,019
6,721
1,743
Yukon, OK
#43
Ok, so regardless of whether you think Trump is racist towards latinos, exploits racism toward latinos, or loves latinos, I think it's pretty clear that his fate hinges on the economy. Which brings me back to my original assertion that the China confrontation is worth supporting, regardless of politics. Now that the trade war is starting to have impacts on the stock market, does he stick to his guns?? My guess is no. He is keenly aware of his razor thin margin for re-election, and I believe Trump will always put Trump first. So, my predictions are for an elimination or deferment of some tariffs, as well as an intense leaning on the FED to lower interest rates. The next few weeks will be interesting.
By a show of hands, how many of you guys think I should save this one for later?... :D
 

Boomer.....

Territorial Marshal
Feb 15, 2007
6,624
5,923
1,743
OKC
#45
We are long overdue for a recession. There's only so much money the feds can pump into the market before the inevitable happens.
 

SLVRBK

Johnny 8ball's PR Manager
Staff
A/V Subscriber
Oct 16, 2003
14,172
5,168
1,743
Katy, TX
#46
Hell of a response to the rate inversion

https://twitter.com/KTULNews/status/1161733065204539394?s=19
It's more than that...China's slowdown, contraction in Germany (which appears to be related to China's slowdown), fear of impending recession in the EU, Argentina crash, Brexit (today a Sr. MP said UK could leave the EU in 10 days)
 

ksupoke

We don't need no, thot kuntrol
A/V Subscriber
Feb 16, 2011
12,075
16,409
743
dark sarcasm in the classroom
#50
Ok, so regardless of whether you think Trump is racist towards latinos, exploits racism toward latinos, or loves latinos, I think it's pretty clear that his fate hinges on the economy. Which brings me back to my original assertion that the China confrontation is worth supporting, regardless of politics. Now that the trade war is starting to have impacts on the stock market, does he stick to his guns?? My guess is no. He is keenly aware of his razor thin margin for re-election, and I believe Trump will always put Trump first. So, my predictions are for an elimination or deferment of some tariffs, as well as an intense leaning on the FED to lower interest rates. The next few weeks will be interesting.
I’m curious how you predict something today, deferred tariffs, that’s already been announced, yesterday.
Additionally, the fed started saying few weeks back they were concerned about global (not US) economic concerns and began signaling rate cuts to quell the fear, regardless of how unlikely, of a global recession.
Quite the limb you strode out on there Nostradamus
 
Oct 30, 2007
3,315
2,964
1,743
#52
I thought bonds were "flashing" a recession a few months ago during the last steep drop.
Back in December, the 2 year / 5 year treasury curve rates inverted. Last night, the 2 year / 10 year treasury bond rates inverted. So this inversion is even more drastic.
 

CaliforniaCowboy

Federal Marshal
Oct 15, 2003
16,319
2,579
1,743
So Cal
#53
We are long overdue for a recession. There's only so much money the feds can pump into the market before the inevitable happens.
huh? I thought they stopped the quantitative easing long ago

On 18 September 2013, the Fed decided to hold off on scaling back its bond-buying program, and announced in December 2013 that it would begin to taper its purchases in January 2014. Purchases were halted on 29 October 2014 after accumulating $4.5 trillion in assets.
 
Oct 30, 2007
3,315
2,964
1,743
#56
or the Fed can lower rates and the inversion disappears.... and we get back to winning
If the Fed lowers rates, and we resolve the trade war with China, we may be able to push back our next recession for awhile. But if that does happen, it will only be the 2nd time in the past 50 years that an inverted yield curve didn't predict a recession. The UK's yield curve inverted yesterday as well. It's looking like there's a good chance that Germany will go into a recession by the end of the year. China had the lowest GDP growth last year that they've had in the past 27 years. They're projected to do even worse this year. We've seen widespread economic slowdown throughout much of Europe.

It will be interesting to see how all of this plays out. We could do everything right, and still get pulled into a recession by the world's economy.
 

CaliforniaCowboy

Federal Marshal
Oct 15, 2003
16,319
2,579
1,743
So Cal
#57
If the Fed lowers rates, and we resolve the trade war with China, we may be able to push back our next recession for awhile. But if that does happen, it will only be the 2nd time in the past 50 years that an inverted yield curve didn't predict a recession. The UK's yield curve inverted yesterday as well. It's looking like there's a good chance that Germany will go into a recession by the end of the year. China had the lowest GDP growth last year that they've had in the past 27 years. They're projected to do even worse this year. We've seen widespread economic slowdown throughout much of Europe.

It will be interesting to see how all of this plays out. We could do everything right, and still get pulled into a recession by the world's economy.
but there is no telling how severe or mild a recession might be... I mean we could be in and out before the election.
 

ksupoke

We don't need no, thot kuntrol
A/V Subscriber
Feb 16, 2011
12,075
16,409
743
dark sarcasm in the classroom
#59
huh? I thought they stopped the quantitative easing long ago

On 18 September 2013, the Fed decided to hold off on scaling back its bond-buying program, and announced in December 2013 that it would begin to taper its purchases in January 2014. Purchases were halted on 29 October 2014 after accumulating $4.5 trillion in assets.
I’m certainly not smart enough to know if market triggers are changing or have changed, I suspect like everything they adapt and perform within context. You nailed the QE element, the other part to watch is the Fed’s balance sheet, it’s a pretty good barometer of what they’re doing next. They loaded up on bonds, they artificially deflated overnight rates, bonds mature, the fed in late Q3 17 began a long awaited/ overdue divestiture of said bonds, as a result, people could have reasonably expected 18 to be a year of interest rate increases, if ever so slight, and that happened. Here’s what’s strange, and why I’m wondering if the market predictors everyone points to are shifting, the fed is still principally in a divest mode, there’s always some buying and yet in July they as much as said the rest of the year there would be no increases and that it was likely there would be decreases.
Market indicators and predictors are based on what has historically been true several pretty smart people believe that they are nothing more than correlaries.
I’m not sure these indicators are the answer as the markets and global economies evolve.
 
Oct 15, 2003
16,319
2,579
1,743
So Cal
#60
OH MY GOODNESS...... guess what the Lame Stream Media forgot to mention.....

Research, all four recessions in the US since 1980 occurred either while the yield curve was inverted, or
within one year of an occurrence. However, while severe yield curve inversions led to recessions, mild ones did not. Of the eight observed historical occurrences, only four resulted in a recession.

In the last five occurrences since 1978, the S&P 500 has been an average of 13.5% higher a year later, according to data compiled by Dow Jones Market Data. The same holds true on average over two- and three-year periods following an inversion, with the S&P 500 up 14.7% and 16.4%, respectively.