Bye Bye Trade War? China Plans $1 Trillion Buying Spree to Reduce US Trade Deficit

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wrenhal

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This may be the biggest threat China faces: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/17/asia/china-birthrate-intl-hnk/index.html

Experts worry if the trend continues, or the population begins shrinking, China may get old before it gets rich.
I have already accepted that for me personally. About 35 years ago when I first stepped foot into the Architecture Building
Wait, what?? Is there something I need to tell my architecture student son before he graduates later this year?

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MindAflame

Lurking. Screwed.
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This may be the biggest threat China faces: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/17/asia/china-birthrate-intl-hnk/index.html

Experts worry if the trend continues, or the population begins shrinking, China may get old before it gets rich.
From the article:
"However, it's unclear how reliable the figures are, as Beijing has been accused of meddling with its statistics for political gain by Western governments and academics like Yi Fuxian, who studies Chinese demographics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Yi said in a statement that the numbers are likely overstated because they are heavily influenced by external factors."

A broad consensus of demographers studying China believe the size of the Chinese population is overstated by the Chinese government, and that the One Child policy created an inescapable population time bomb that even the healthiest of birth rates cannot prevent. Many of these demographers estimate China's population will begin to decline within the next 8 years.

Yi Fuxian believes both that China's real population is significantly lower than that reported by the Chinese state, and that China's real population decline is already underway as of 2018.

(I know you are aware of these things. I'm primarily adding detail to the Yi Fuxian reference in the CNN piece.)
 
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Aug 16, 2012
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Wait, what?? Is there something I need to tell my architecture student son before he graduates later this year?

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If he is graduating this year and he has not been told or figured out that the money is marginal at best, I am not going to be the one to tell him. 30 years out, 15 in straight architecture, 15 as a real estate consultant. The first five years as a consultant...made more than the prior 15 combined. Tell him to pass the test asap and get with a development firm. Way more stability, salary and you actually get to have a life. The knowledge gleaned from being an architect is way more valuable in other real estate/development aspects of the industry.
 

SLVRBK

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From the article:
"However, it's unclear how reliable the figures are, as Beijing has been accused of meddling with its statistics for political gain by Western governments and academics like Yi Fuxian, who studies Chinese demographics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Yi said in a statement that the numbers are likely overstated because they are heavily influenced by external factors."

A broad consensus of demographers studying China believe the size of the Chinese population is overstated by the Chinese government, and that the One Child policy created an inescapable population time bomb that even the healthiest of birth rates cannot prevent. Many of these demographers estimate China's population will begin to decline within the next 8 years.

Yi Fuxian believes both that China's real population is significantly lower than that reported by the Chinese state, and that China's real population decline is already underway as of 2018.

(I know you are aware of these things. I'm primarily adding detail to the Yi Fuxian reference in the CNN piece.)
Yes, many independent demographers believe the debline has already begun and they are in the same death spiral as Japan and Korea.
 

wrenhal

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Aug 11, 2011
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Wait, what?? Is there something I need to tell my architecture student son before he graduates later this year?

Sent from my Moto Z (2) using Tapatalk
If he is graduating this year and he has not been told or figured out that the money is marginal at best, I am not going to be the one to tell him. 30 years out, 15 in straight architecture, 15 as a real estate consultant. The first five years as a consultant...made more than the prior 15 combined. Tell him to pass the test asap and get with a development firm. Way more stability, salary and you actually get to have a life. The knowledge gleaned from being an architect is way more valuable in other real estate/development aspects of the industry.
He's currently serving a year as an intern in New Haven at Pickard-Chilton. He'll be back in August to finish his 5th year studio and Lord willing he'll then graduate and take his test.

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ksupoke

We don't need no, thot kuntrol
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dark sarcasm in the classroom
So the last couple of weeks I’ve been stepping outside of my comfort zone and I’ve been working with the California Trucking Association on a couple of projects. During this time I saw an independent report on the trade deal on economic impact, since most everything comes through the ports and is transported by truck to end users or rail it stands to reason they’d have a comprehensive economic impact assessment.
If only Phase 1 is implemented and it’s implemented as written, the overall windfall to the US could reach $1T in just over 3 years.
I also read a story in the malaytimes that says the impact to China and surrounding areas could go beyond $3T over a 4 yr window and will likely impact the tensions in the SCS in a positive way.
 

ksupoke

We don't need no, thot kuntrol
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I can believe that. The floor that is building under the ag commodities has been needed.
It’s a 200 page report most folks look at the trade numbers, as I suspect you and a few others understand, that’s the tip of the iceberg when you’re Looking at overall economic impact whether it’s good or bad.

I went back a read the first few pages of this thread, prior to joining in, a lot of the comments didn’t age well.
 
Nov 16, 2013
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The tip of the iceberg is extremely correct. There are some equipment dealers, seed dealers, fertilizer dealers, etc.. that are hoping this thing is correct. For that matter the potential sales tax revenue from expanded petroleum exploration could be incredible.
 

SLVRBK

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So the last couple of weeks I’ve been stepping outside of my comfort zone and I’ve been working with the California Trucking Association on a couple of projects. During this time I saw an independent report on the trade deal on economic impact, since most everything comes through the ports and is transported by truck to end users or rail it stands to reason they’d have a comprehensive economic impact assessment.
If only Phase 1 is implemented and it’s implemented as written, the overall windfall to the US could reach $1T in just over 3 years.
I also read a story in the malaytimes that says the impact to China and surrounding areas could go beyond $3T over a 4 yr window and will likely impact the tensions in the SCS in a positive way.
$1T per year?
 

ksupoke

We don't need no, thot kuntrol
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What I was referring to was $1t over 3 years with progressive growth, the 3rd year was projected at $500b, anything beyond that, imo, your bringing in so many variables (political and others) that it’d be hard to put any stock in those numbers.
The entirety of the report carried out 10 years and was bracketed by numerous contingencies.
 
Jul 25, 2018
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You, literally, couldn’t create a more anti Trump msm if you tried. Headline from Reuters

Trump signs USMCA, 'ending the NAFTA nightmare'; key Democrats not invited
Hence, my statement that he could cure cancer & the headline would be about how many researchers were put out of a job.

In the same vein, remember when Bolton was an ultra-hawk that was going to lead us into all kinds of conflicts? Yeah, he's the ultimate statesman who needs to be heard from now.
 
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Hence, my statement that he could cure cancer & the headline would be about how many researchers were put out of a job.

In the same vein, remember when Bolton was an ultra-hawk that was going to lead us into all kinds of conflicts? Yeah, he's the ultimate statesman who needs to be heard from now.
Uh, no, he is still a hawk that would undoubtedly have led us into war with Iran if Trump had listened to him. That doesn't make him a liar, nor does it make Trump clean on the issue at hand. More than one thing can be true at the same time, none of those issues are mutually exclusive. That's the problem with picking a side, which our current two party system dictates. Here are all things that are true:

1. Bolton is a hawk that favored regime change in Iran and by force if necessary.
2. Trump is not a hawk and favors economic leverage in foreign policy, including Iran, thus firing Bolton.
3. Trump abused his power and used economic leverage in the Ukraine scandal surreptitiously, which Bolton can most certainly confirm, if any confirmation is still needed.

I can list more, but the point is, we can quibble about the level of importance of any of the above, agree or disagree, but when we pick a side, it makes us incapable of evaluating each one on it's own merit. I despise Trump and will vote for whoever the democrats nominate this cycle, and my reasons are my own. But my reasons are not due to picking any side. There are several of Trumps positions I agree with and several I don't. I know most on this board don't care, but the point is, I try to evaluate each position on it's own merit, not through a lens of party affiliation.
 

CocoCincinnati

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Here are all things that are true:

1. Bolton is a hawk that favored regime change in Iran and by force if necessary.
2. Trump is not a hawk and favors economic leverage in foreign policy, including Iran, thus firing Bolton.
3. Trump abused his power and used economic leverage in the Ukraine scandal surreptitiously, which Bolton can most certainly confirm, if any confirmation is still needed.
4. Bolton may hold a grudge against Trump, meaning anything he says should be taken with a grain of salt.
5. Bolton is trying to sell a book and make money, meaning anything he says should be taken with a grain of salt.
6. Trump was acquitted of abuse of power.
 
Sep 29, 2011
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Hence, my statement that he could cure cancer & the headline would be about how many researchers were put out of a job.

In the same vein, remember when Bolton was an ultra-hawk that was going to lead us into all kinds of conflicts? Yeah, he's the ultimate statesman who needs to be heard from now.
Uh, no, he is still a hawk that would undoubtedly have led us into war with Iran if Trump had listened to him. That doesn't make him a liar, nor does it make Trump clean on the issue at hand. More than one thing can be true at the same time, none of those issues are mutually exclusive. That's the problem with picking a side, which our current two party system dictates. Here are all things that are true:

1. Bolton is a hawk that favored regime change in Iran and by force if necessary.
2. Trump is not a hawk and favors economic leverage in foreign policy, including Iran, thus firing Bolton.
3. Trump abused his power and used economic leverage in the Ukraine scandal surreptitiously, which Bolton can most certainly confirm, if any confirmation is still needed.

I can list more, but the point is, we can quibble about the level of importance of any of the above, agree or disagree, but when we pick a side, it makes us incapable of evaluating each one on it's own merit. I despise Trump and will vote for whoever the democrats nominate this cycle, and my reasons are my own. But my reasons are not due to picking any side. There are several of Trumps positions I agree with and several I don't. I know most on this board don't care, but the point is, I try to evaluate each position on it's own merit, not through a lens of party affiliation.
Clearly you’d rather have a more politically correct Pres that pushes socialism over a jackass Pres that pushes economic success for the entire population. That’s some goofy calculus.

BTW, Trump didn’t use economic leverage surreptitiously against Ukraine. Ukraine got their aid without any action. Trump got nothing in return. Now, he MAY have tried to initially position himself to get some sort of benefit, but in the end he backed off any attempt he MAY have attempted. Have you been paying attention?

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