Bedlam Game Time Announced

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Feb 15, 2017
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Texas
#21
Not that' I'm afraid of those guys but . . .. if the game happened to get canceled and we already have a game on Dec 12, so no chance for a make up. So we could finish 7-1 (0.88) and the best 0U or KSU or Texas could do is 7-2 (0.78).
Skip 0U and win out and we're in.
Lose to 0U and win out and we may or may not get in.


"Big12 Championship Game: The game will be played between the two teams with the highest winning percentage in conference games this season "
 
Nov 6, 2010
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#22
Not that' I'm afraid of those guys but . . .. if the game happened to get canceled and we already have a game on Dec 12, so no chance for a make up. So we could finish 7-1 (0.88) and the best 0U or KSU or Texas could do is 7-2 (0.78).
Skip 0U and win out and we're in.
Lose to 0U and win out and we may or may not get in.


"Big12 Championship Game: The game will be played between the two teams with the highest winning percentage in conference games this season "
So just trying to think this through, if we lose and win out, then we need Texas and Iowa State to both lose another game, right?? So they still have to play each other, so one of those is guaranteed. Then if Texas wins, then Kstate has to beat them or they are in. And if Iowa State wins, then they need to lose to either WVU or Kstate. I guess that means we need to pull for the Clones to beat Texas, but since that's the last game of the year we'll know for sure. Of course, I guess OU could lose at WVU as well, but I kinda doubt that.
 
Nov 27, 2007
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Tulsa
#23
Not that' I'm afraid of those guys but . . .. if the game happened to get canceled and we already have a game on Dec 12, so no chance for a make up. So we could finish 7-1 (0.88) and the best 0U or KSU or Texas could do is 7-2 (0.78).
Skip 0U and win out and we're in.
Lose to 0U and win out and we may or may not get in.


"Big12 Championship Game: The game will be played between the two teams with the highest winning percentage in conference games this season "


If we lose to OU we will need a ton of help to get in. Losing to UT hurt, UT getting lucky in Lubbock hurt, UT not putting away OU hurt.

Assuming we win out... and no weird upsets for other teams. We would be in a 4 way tie for second with OU, UT, KSU... We would need to break out of the tie with OU/UT as they both would have head to head.

With a Bedlam loss OSU would need one of the following to get in:
WVU to beat OU; ISU/KSU to beat UT ... ISU vs OSU
WVU to beat OU; UT to beat ISU ... UT vs OSU
WVU to beat OU, KSU win out ... KSU vs OSU
ISU to beat UT; KSU to beat ISU; UT beats KSU ... OU vs OSU
KSU to beat UT, UT to beat ISU ... OU vs OSU
KSU win out, ISU to beat UT... 4 way tie with OU (1-2), ISU (1-2), KSU (2-1), OSU (2-1) ... KSU vs OSU

There might be other combinations but I highly doubt OU loses to WVU or Baylor if they beat us.. Our only real shot would be that Texas and ISU both lose one so that we get a second chance at Bedlam.
 
Sep 29, 2011
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Breckenridge, CO
#25
Not that' I'm afraid of those guys but . . .. if the game happened to get canceled and we already have a game on Dec 12, so no chance for a make up. So we could finish 7-1 (0.88) and the best 0U or KSU or Texas could do is 7-2 (0.78).
Skip 0U and win out and we're in.
Lose to 0U and win out and we may or may not get in.


"Big12 Championship Game: The game will be played between the two teams with the highest winning percentage in conference games this season "


If we lose to OU we will need a ton of help to get in. Losing to UT hurt, UT getting lucky in Lubbock hurt, UT not putting away OU hurt.

Assuming we win out... and no weird upsets for other teams. We would be in a 4 way tie for second with OU, UT, KSU... We would need to break out of the tie with OU/UT as they both would have head to head.

With a Bedlam loss OSU would need one of the following to get in:
WVU to beat OU; ISU/KSU to beat UT ... ISU vs OSU
WVU to beat OU; UT to beat ISU ... UT vs OSU
WVU to beat OU, KSU win out ... KSU vs OSU
ISU to beat UT; KSU to beat ISU; UT beats KSU ... OU vs OSU
KSU to beat UT, UT to beat ISU ... OU vs OSU
KSU win out, ISU to beat UT... 4 way tie with OU (1-2), ISU (1-2), KSU (2-1), OSU (2-1) ... KSU vs OSU

There might be other combinations but I highly doubt OU loses to WVU or Baylor if they beat us.. Our only real shot would be that Texas and ISU both lose one so that we get a second chance at Bedlam.
4-way tie for second? Who would 1st?


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Nov 27, 2007
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Tulsa
#26
4-way tie for second? Who would 1st?


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In this scenario ISU is in first as it is the only 1 loss team. Obviously the KSU vs. ISU game is played before bedlam so a lot of the possibilities will have already been eliminated. So in the spirit of “what could happen” that game is in a vacuum.
 
Sep 29, 2011
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#27
4-way tie for second? Who would 1st?


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In this scenario ISU is in first as it is the only 1 loss team. Obviously the KSU vs. ISU game is played before bedlam so a lot of the possibilities will have already been eliminated. So in the spirit of “what could happen” that game is in a vacuum.
If UT only has 2 losses, ISU won’t have only 1 loss. And, UT and KSU can’t both only have 2 losses.

Need to Recalibrate.


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Nov 27, 2007
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Tulsa
#28
If UT only has 2 losses, ISU won’t have only 1 loss.


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How? ISU and UT have not played....

KSU/ISU game in a vacuum.
At the end of this week you would have:
KSU, OU, OSU, and UT would all be tied with 2 losses.
ISU would have 1 loss.

ISU/KSU is in a vacuum to layout the possibilities before they play.
 
Sep 29, 2011
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#29
If UT only has 2 losses, ISU won’t have only 1 loss.


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How? ISU and UT have not played....

KSU/ISU game in a vacuum.
At the end of this week you would have:
KSU, OU, OSU, and UT would all be tied with 2 losses.
ISU would have 1 loss.

ISU/KSU is in a vacuum to layout the possibilities before they play.
At no time can there be a 4-way tie for 2nd between OSU, OU, UT and KSU.. Not now, not this weekend, or any week thereafter. It’s just difficult to accept that as a premise to any scenario.

FWIW, ISU/KSU play before OU/OSU.


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Last edited:
Nov 27, 2007
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Tulsa
#30
At no time can there be a 4-way tie for 2nd between OSU, OU, UT and KSU.. Not now, not this weekend, or any week thereafter. It’s just difficult to accept that as a premise to any scenario.

FWIW, ISU/KSU play before OU/OSU.


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That is correct. There can’t be an actual tie like I have laid out... However...

The premise of my comment is what needs to happen for OSU to make the CCG with a loss to OU. I already I stated that the ISU/KSU game is before bedlam and that several possibilities would already have been eliminated at that point.

I put that game in a “vacuum.” What I mean by that is that we suppress the results from the game, since we don’t know the outcome, so that it has no effect on the possibilities. The more variables you can isolate, the easier it is to outline the possibilities. If you do not suppress it, the possible scenarios get a lot more convoluted than they need to be.

With that game suppressed it makes the “tie” that I outlined. From there you can look at the possibilities with an ISU or KSU win at a glance as well as what would need to happen based on that outcome.
 
Jan 13, 2008
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Corinth, TX
#31
Not that' I'm afraid of those guys but . . .. if the game happened to get canceled and we already have a game on Dec 12, so no chance for a make up. So we could finish 7-1 (0.88) and the best 0U or KSU or Texas could do is 7-2 (0.78).
Skip 0U and win out and we're in.
Lose to 0U and win out and we may or may not get in.


"Big12 Championship Game: The game will be played between the two teams with the highest winning percentage in conference games this season "
I discussed this on October 17th. We could play the "COVID game" and avoid potential games we don't want to play (road and rivalry games) in order to advance to the Big12 championship game.

If we play 10 regular season games, why should they all count when other leagues only play 6?

http://orangepower.com/threads/game-dates.271499/#post-4134656
 
Nov 16, 2013
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tractor
#32
Not that' I'm afraid of those guys but . . .. if the game happened to get canceled and we already have a game on Dec 12, so no chance for a make up. So we could finish 7-1 (0.88) and the best 0U or KSU or Texas could do is 7-2 (0.78).
Skip 0U and win out and we're in.
Lose to 0U and win out and we may or may not get in.


"Big12 Championship Game: The game will be played between the two teams with the highest winning percentage in conference games this season "
Gundy is probably walking through now asking who's got a cough.
 

wrenhal

Federal Marshal
Aug 11, 2011
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#33
At no time can there be a 4-way tie for 2nd between OSU, OU, UT and KSU.. Not now, not this weekend, or any week thereafter. It’s just difficult to accept that as a premise to any scenario.

FWIW, ISU/KSU play before OU/OSU.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
That is correct. There can’t be an actual tie like I have laid out... However...

The premise of my comment is what needs to happen for OSU to make the CCG with a loss to OU. I already I stated that the ISU/KSU game is before bedlam and that several possibilities would already have been eliminated at that point.

I put that game in a “vacuum.” What I mean by that is that we suppress the results from the game, since we don’t know the outcome, so that it has no effect on the possibilities. The more variables you can isolate, the easier it is to outline the possibilities. If you do not suppress it, the possible scenarios get a lot more convoluted than they need to be.

With that game suppressed it makes the “tie” that I outlined. From there you can look at the possibilities with an ISU or KSU win at a glance as well as what would need to happen based on that outcome.
I think he's saying that at the end of the season ISU can't be a 1 loss team AND UT be a 2 loss team because they have to play each other before CCG weekend.

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wrenhal

Federal Marshal
Aug 11, 2011
10,251
4,123
743
#34
Not that' I'm afraid of those guys but . . .. if the game happened to get canceled and we already have a game on Dec 12, so no chance for a make up. So we could finish 7-1 (0.88) and the best 0U or KSU or Texas could do is 7-2 (0.78).
Skip 0U and win out and we're in.
Lose to 0U and win out and we may or may not get in.


"Big12 Championship Game: The game will be played between the two teams with the highest winning percentage in conference games this season "
Gundy is probably walking through now asking who's got a cough.
Except yesterday, I think, we showed no active football cases.

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Sep 29, 2011
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Breckenridge, CO
#35
At no time can there be a 4-way tie for 2nd between OSU, OU, UT and KSU.. Not now, not this weekend, or any week thereafter. It’s just difficult to accept that as a premise to any scenario.

FWIW, ISU/KSU play before OU/OSU.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
That is correct. There can’t be an actual tie like I have laid out... However...

The premise of my comment is what needs to happen for OSU to make the CCG with a loss to OU. I already I stated that the ISU/KSU game is before bedlam and that several possibilities would already have been eliminated at that point.

I put that game in a “vacuum.” What I mean by that is that we suppress the results from the game, since we don’t know the outcome, so that it has no effect on the possibilities. The more variables you can isolate, the easier it is to outline the possibilities. If you do not suppress it, the possible scenarios get a lot more convoluted than they need to be.

With that game suppressed it makes the “tie” that I outlined. From there you can look at the possibilities with an ISU or KSU win at a glance as well as what would need to happen based on that outcome.
I think he's saying that at the end of the season ISU can't be a 1 loss team AND UT be a 2 loss team because they have to play each other before CCG weekend.

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Yes, amongst other things.
Because of the plethora of potential outcomes, I find it easiest to think about our chances of making the CCG in this way:

Win out, we’re in.
4-way tie w/OU, UT and ISU, we’re out.
3-way tie w/OU and UT, we’re out
3-way tie w/OU and ISU, we’re out if UT finishes 4th, in if KSU finishes 4th
3-way tie w/OU and KSU, we’re out of UT finished 4th, in if ISU finishes 4th.
3-way tie w/ISU and KSU, we’re in.
3-way tie w/ISU and UT, we’re in.
Tie for second with ISU, KSU or WVU we’re in.
Tie for second with OU or UT, we’re out.
3-way tie for 2nd, too many possibilities.

Too many other “what ifs” to list all other possibilities.


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Nov 27, 2007
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Tulsa
#36
Yes, amongst other things.
Because of the plethora of potential outcomes, I find it easiest to think about our chances of making the CCG in this way:

Win out, we’re in.
4-way tie w/OU, UT and ISU, we’re out.
3-way tie w/OU and UT, we’re out
3-way tie w/OU and ISU, we’re out if UT finishes 4th, in if KSU finishes 4th
3-way tie w/OU and KSU, we’re out of UT finished 4th, in if ISU finishes 4th.
3-way tie w/ISU and KSU, we’re in.
3-way tie w/ISU and UT, we’re in.
Tie for second with ISU, KSU or WVU we’re in.
Tie for second with OU or UT, we’re out.
3-way tie for 2nd, too many possibilities.

Too many other “what ifs” to list all other possibilities.


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Which is exactly why you isolate the key unknown variable and suppress it. It takes away many "what-ifs" and "too many possibilities."

I honestly don't know why we are going back and forth on this. We both must be bored.... Were both analyzing it correctly but differently. Plus, none of this will matter when we beat the squats in 4 days.
 
Sep 29, 2011
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Breckenridge, CO
#37
Yes, amongst other things.
Because of the plethora of potential outcomes, I find it easiest to think about our chances of making the CCG in this way:

Win out, we’re in.
4-way tie w/OU, UT and ISU, we’re out.
3-way tie w/OU and UT, we’re out
3-way tie w/OU and ISU, we’re out if UT finishes 4th, in if KSU finishes 4th
3-way tie w/OU and KSU, we’re out of UT finished 4th, in if ISU finishes 4th.
3-way tie w/ISU and KSU, we’re in.
3-way tie w/ISU and UT, we’re in.
Tie for second with ISU, KSU or WVU we’re in.
Tie for second with OU or UT, we’re out.
3-way tie for 2nd, too many possibilities.

Too many other “what ifs” to list all other possibilities.


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Which is exactly why you isolate the key unknown variable and suppress it. It takes away many "what-ifs" and "too many possibilities."

I honestly don't know why we are going back and forth on this. We both must be bored.... Were both analyzing it correctly but differently. Plus, none of this will matter when we beat the squats in 4 days.
I guess I’m not prepared to assume anything when any one of the 14 remaining game results are different than your assumption and the whole house of cards falls.


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Nov 27, 2007
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Tulsa
#38
I guess I’m not prepared to assume anything when any one of the 14 remaining game results are different than your assumption and the whole house of cards falls.


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I'm looking at what needs to happen, not how it needs to end....

True, a KU upset over UT, or a 3rd OSU loss would throw off the entire situation, but that is not the point of the exercise. The point of the exercise is to determine what would need to happen (the help OSU would need) with the assumption that no other upsets happen to the group. If you only look at potential season-end outcomes, it will give you an understanding of tie breaker and who would go, but it does not tell you what needs to happen in certain scenarios.

Besides the data set is fluid, as we get more results it simply eliminates possibilities. If something happens to spoil an assumption, that's fine, you can make adjustments as its fluid.
 
Sep 29, 2011
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Breckenridge, CO
#39
I'm looking at what needs to happen, not how it needs to end....

True, a KU upset over UT, or a 3rd OSU loss would throw off the entire situation, but that is not the point of the exercise. The point of the exercise is to determine what would need to happen (the help OSU would need) with the assumption that no other upsets happen to the group. If you only look at potential season-end outcomes, it will give you an understanding of tie breaker and who would go, but it does not tell you what needs to happen in certain scenarios.

Besides the data set is fluid, as we get more results it simply eliminates possibilities. If something happens to spoil an assumption, that's fine, you can make adjustments as its fluid.
As I posted 3 weeks ago in a single sentense:
Win out and we're in, otherwise if we lose to OU, we need OU and/or UT to lose another game to even have a realistic chance.