Baylor Baseball Series

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Matt_bob123

SBC presents Mattbob
Oct 16, 2003
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#1
The Cowboys next weekend series will be in Waco, at arguably the best stadium in the Big12. Standard start times (all games will be televised). (Friday at 630, Saturday 3, Sunday at 1). The Cowboys, themselves, are in the middle of finals, so let's look at our opponent.

Baylor will be well rested. They took off last week for finals, but play a pair of midweek games with Prarie View A&M, we can assume they'll enter the series with a 12 game winning streak, one of the longest in the country. Baylor has their bats coming alive during their hot streak, but this team has dynamite pitching. Friday's starter LHP Cody Bradford has a 1.6 ERA in big12 play and one hit TCU. The Saturday starter RHP Hayden Kettler, is a 3 ERA guy, that has only allowed 1 home run in conference play. Sunday's starter isn't a slouch either LHP Tyler Thomas (he has a sub 3 ERA for the season, but has been roughed up a little in big12 play).

The problem is, if you get past the starters, their bullpen is fantastic too. Anchored by Closer Troy Montemayor, 2.45 ERA, 10 saves, he's issued just 4 walks in 18 appearances, so don't count on any help from him. The other 4 main guys are RHP Joe Heineman, whose only allowed 2 earned runs all season and they were in noncon play. RHP Alex Phillips has only allowed 1 earned run in big12 play. Both Heineman and Phillips tend to be 1 inning set up guys to get them to Montemayor. RHP Kyle Hill and RHP Drew Robertson tend to be their main long relief guys both are carrying sub 3 ERAs.

Their pitching staff works with probably the best catcher in the Big12 (and early season man to be considered for player of the year) Shae Langeliers. His bat wasn't there early in the season, but he's been hitting during their streak, still has power with 9 home runs. The main threats in their lineup are 3rd Baseman Davis Wendzel - .353 in conference and 7 home runs. LF T.J. Raguse (missed games with an injury) .350 BA., (above .400 in the last 14 games). SS Nick Loftin .321 BA in big12 play. There are some holes from there, but during their 10 game win streak, they are averaging 10 runs a game. You score that many with an elite staff and you make some noise in the league.

Cowboys need to just get 2 (of 6) to clinch a share of the title, but for regional purposes, we probably need to win the series. Plus it'd be nice to have the title in hand BEFORE Tech comes to town because Texas Tech is a very dangerous matchup for us.

Hopefully, there's a big Orange turnout in Waco and that people have already started buying their tickets for the Tech Series. Let's bring home the Big12 Title.
 

Jostate

CPTNQUIRK called me a greenhorn
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#2
Very thorough analysis. I might just add that they are a bunch of rapey, animal abusing, teammate killing self righteous jack wagons.
 
Oct 6, 2012
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#4
I have been to their park. It is a nice yard but if that is "arguably the best stadium in the big12" then Reynolds-Ward-Holliday Stadium will be by far the nicest park in the conference.

I hate to admit it but I think ou's ballpark is nicer than Baylor's but that's just my unworthy opinion.

I hope the Baylor boys can come back to reality when we get down there. I would love to wrap up the title before we even take the field vs Tech.
 
Aug 16, 2012
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#5
I am not sold on Baylor baseball as much as you are Matt-Bob. They sit at 9-9 in conference, got swept by Texas and OU, won the TTU series (only series win against the top part of the conference) then turned around and lost the KU series and swept the KSU series. Like OSU was until a week ago, they generally beat lower-ranked teams and lost to higher-ranked teams. Nothing really screams they have "turned the corner" as their last two series were against lower (and lowest) ranked teams. Not implying that they should be dismissed, but IMO they pose no bigger threat than anything we have not seen already.
 

Matt_bob123

SBC presents Mattbob
Oct 16, 2003
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#6
I am not sold on Baylor baseball as much as you are Matt-Bob. They sit at 9-9 in conference, got swept by Texas and OU, won the TTU series (only series win against the top part of the conference) then turned around and lost the KU series and swept the KSU series. Like OSU was until a week ago, they generally beat lower-ranked teams and lost to higher-ranked teams. Nothing really screams they have "turned the corner" as their last two series were against lower (and lowest) ranked teams. Not implying that they should be dismissed, but IMO they pose no bigger threat than anything we have not seen already.
If you look back on that KU series, they actually outscored KU but had a ton of errors. Bad baseball can kill anyone. One of our problems at Iowa was not playing clean baseball. The difference between them now and then is that with TJ Raguse's return they are playing a completely different outfield. Raguse back means Loftin is at SS, and Harin moves to CF (bumping Gilcrease out of the lineup) and Cascadden rides the pine as the backup SS.

If they play clean and hit the ball like they have, with that pitching staff, it's a tough weekend. You can look at the series results and locations and note a few things as well.

On the road at OU, Texas: Swept 0-6
On the road at KSU win 3.
But at home vs. TCU, Tech, and KU: 6-3.

There's a lot of teams that would be excited with that home record. RPI is about 10 spots better than Iowa and 20 spots better at strength of record than Iowa.
 
Jun 4, 2007
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#7
Dang it, Matt_bob! This is the time of year my productivity goes to the crapper in the office. Your insight is always much appreciated. Can't wait for Friday to get here!
 

Chairman of the Board

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Mar 17, 2006
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#14
Friday's game is really important. After playing so well against OU, we've lost 3 of 4, and not played all that well in any of them. Now isn't the time to go into a funk.

This team needs to regain its confidence, especially on the mound, and of course cut down the strikeouts.
 

ksupoke

We don't need no, thot kuntrol
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Feb 16, 2011
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#15
To emphasize the obvious;
Pokes need to get one of Friday or Saturday - Baylor has a bigger issue at #3 than Josh does.

Below are conference only stats - bu has the Pokes and @WV the Cowboys have @bu and TT at home so the numbers give a pretty accurate assessment and that is that this should be a good series for every strength one team has the other has a corresponding strength.
bu shows a little better on the hill, they lead the conf in era the Pokes are #2, both are the leaders in least hr's allowed but bu keeps runners off base better bu probably has a better 1-2 but the Pokes likely have a stronger 1-2-3, depending on who actually shows up when they are called the Pokes bullpen lines up well no question the talent is there but it is so inconsistent you have to give the edge to bu.

In terms of fielding that's pretty much a wash - 975ish for both squads - Pokes have given up 9 ue bu has given up 12 ue so again pretty much a wash

The Cowboys have a decided advantage at the dish 30pt diff in obp, 25% lead in xbh's and have outscored them by roughly a run a game

run differential (pretty good indicator) in b9 play - bu +40 Cowboys +53

baylor is scorching hot and it's hard to stay that way so a lull could be in the offing

Keys (imo)
Get ahead early - bu has not shown much ability to come back from deficits
In g2 (probably) wait out Kettler make him throw a lot of pitches his control isn't the best
Teel needs to be on (duh) but getting g1 puts all the pressure on texas to essentially go undefeated
if they do get behind early just don't lose sight of bu - starters on not long on inn or pitches, only 3 saves & closer is not automatic so they can be had if you can stick around

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Jun 4, 2007
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#16
getting g1 puts all the pressure on texas to essentially go undefeated
Texas only has 3 games left with slumping TCU in Austin. They could very well take all 3. If they do, they would finish with 17 total wins. Since the Cowboys are at 15 wins, and UT owns the tiebreaker, we'd need 3 more wins in our last 6 to win it outright.
 

ksupoke

We don't need no, thot kuntrol
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#17
Texas only has 3 games left with slumping TCU in Austin. They could very well take all 3. If they do, they would finish with 17 total wins. Since the Cowboys are at 15 wins, and UT owns the tiebreaker, we'd need 3 more wins in our last 6 to win it outright.
‘essentially’ the point really is that you want texas going to tcu thinking in their heads they have to have all 3. Win g1 and now they start thinking that way and getting them thinking that is 1/2 the battle, plus I expect tcu to be geared up for the horns minus a deep tournament run this is their last shot at trying to get an at large bid.
 
Last edited:
Oct 1, 2006
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#18

ksupoke

We don't need no, thot kuntrol
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#19
Looking at the schedule for the series I decided to check if I had Fox College Sports to watch Friday's game. Upon looking it up I found the schedule for FCS Central. They aren't showing the game until midnight. While FCS Pacific is showing it live.

It's going to be infuriating if FCS Pacific is blacked out in Oklahoma.

https://foxsports-wordpress-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2018/05/5.4.18-FCSC.pdf
https://foxsports-wordpress-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2018/05/5.4.18-FCSP.pdf
I’d be ok with it