Baseball Regional Projections

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Lab Rat

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Jan 5, 2012
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#61
All great stats and you make a valid point, but the competition has not been equal. These are certainly quality teams but I don't believe they would have fared as well against our schedule. The stat below is what is being overlooked. Ultimately, the games that matter will be played this weekend.

Strength of Schedule
OSU - 18
USF - 41
Stetson - 143

http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/isr/currentisr.html
That's somewhat of an odd statement, considering that OSU is an ugly 13-14-1 against a modest non-con schedule. And though we did have a nice conference record (16-10 including Big 12 Tournament games), we only went 6-8 against the Big 12 opponents that qualified for the NCAA Tournament.

I'm not sure how the SOS's are calculated by Boydsworld, but here's the Strength of Schedule according to RPI (http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2018/rpi-live)

OSU -- 19 overall; 38 non-con
USF -- 11 overall; 8 non-con
Stetson -- 50 overall; 32 non-con

Here's how they've done against the four RPI groups:
OSU -- Group 1: 9-9; Group 2: 10-8-1; Group 3: 9-5; Group 4: 1-2
USF -- Group 1: 10-13; Group 2: 11-4-1; Group 3: 4-1; Group 4: 10-2
Stetson -- Group 1: 8-3; Group 2: 5-1; Group 3: 18-6; Group 4: 14-1

1527621425228.png


OSU (#41), USF (#18), and Stetson (#4) are all in Group 1. Incidentally, Stetson is 2-0 vs. USF this season.
 

ksupoke

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#62
What you did to get here doesn't matter it's whether or not you beat the team put in front of you.
Stetson and USF certainly have some strengths, but frankly, from looking at who all these teams beat and who they lost to, none of the teams in this regional have a resume that screams "WE BELONG". Pokes need to not just win day 1 but get some length from Day 1 starter, imo, depth of arms just isn't there otherwise, unless they go all Prarie View A&M on the field.
 
Aug 19, 2015
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ataballfield
#63
The NCAA did not do the Cowboys any favors with our poor finish. You can talk about the last four in, but the key is where you get sent and the matchups. These are not great matchups. This regional reminds me a lot of going into Baylor. Great arms and teams playing well.

I don't have any idea what our pitching plan will be, but that's the key to any regional. You have to avoid getting in the loser's bracket so that means in the 2v3 matchup, you should see the best each has to offer. Honestly, I don't know what that means for OSU. That could be Teel, it could be Jensen, or it could mean a bullpen guy (then turning it over to Heasley) ( this seems to be the rage now in all levels, start a reliever then go to a starter, and Heasley only struggles in the first inning so it might be just what the Doctor ordered for him, who knows). I do think the plan in the Big12 was to utilize Joe in more of a bullpen role, either as long relief or set up guy, depending on the game. I'm okay with this.

Stetson: You may want to look at their RPI, conference, or name and discount them, but the truth is, you aren't a top seed without earning it. This pitching staff is legit. They sometimes struggled with better teams, but we aren't good enough to discount anyone. The highlight of the staff is obviously First Rounder RHP Logan Gilbert. He is a heavy strikeout pitcher (not that we are prone to striking out). He's 6'6" with an easy motion that comes down at the hitter, so it is deceptively quicker than the 91-95mph speed. According to scouts, it has good movement on the arm side. He relies on the speed, rarely using the slider (tho our scouting may cause him to go off book). His secondary stuff can fall back into the 70s. That's a lot of control to be able to back it off that much without tipping. The changeup does get thrown slightly different than the 2 seam fastball, so our hitters might be able to pick up on that. He's aggressive, he'll come after you quickly to get ahead in counts. So you will see the fastball early in the at-bat. The report I saw, said he mixes in the off-speed stuff as the game proceeds so he may hold that slider til 2nd time through the lineup. His stat line is scary. 10-1 in 14 starts, 2.52 ERA, 143Ks, 20 BB in 100 IP. (That's ungodly). opponents only batting .171 against him.

There's a chance he throws in game 1 to avoid them getting in the loser's bracket. Before you celebrate that if it happens, they have 3 other legit starters. Its a team built to win regionals. RHP Joey Gonzalez 1.77 ERA 8-3, opponents batting .192. RHP Jack Perkins 2.57 ERA 10-2, 93Ks, LHP Mitchell Senger 2.65 ERA 8-2, 107ks. Their closer is also their DH LHP Brooks Wilson 2.13 ERA, 31 appearances for 20 saves, 55 IP (but given up 40 hits, 68Ks). The other main reliever is LHP Ben Onyshko, 2.87 ERA, 20 appearances, 31 IP.

That's the kind of staffs that make it to Omaha. They don't have anyone hitting above 300, so if we can get a lead on those pitchers, even with our pitching issues, we should be able to hold the lead.

#24 South Florida: The story begins and ends with their Ace LHP Shane McClanahan, his fastball maxes out at 100mph. He's more likely to be in the 97-98 range, but he'll back it up to 90. The ability to vary the speed on the fastball is a huge weapon for him. The book on him is that he's a thrower more than a pitcher and for all his strikeouts, he does give up a fair number of walks when he loses the zone on his off-speed stuff. His delivery is a long stride with high consistency but described as violent as he finishes standing position, not using a full leg follow through. The good news is that he doesn't get a ton of run support on his starts, so the stats don't paint a scary picture. 5-6 Record, 3.41 ERA, 71 IP, 117K, 44 BB, .181 BAA, but only 4 home runs allowed.

Andrew Perez is the closer, 12 saves in 23 appearances, 4 to 1 strikeout ratio, their bullpen is a lot of guys that seemed to be used depending on the situation so I can't really guess what their strategy against us will be.

USF does carry a few bats with them and certainly could turn on our staff. They have 6 guys hitting .300, Villar and Genord are the main power guys, with Montes having the speed to hit a lot of doubles.

Hartford: I'm assuming they'll throw Dombkowski against Stetson, so we will probably see Nathan Florence in a potential game 2, 3.68 ERA, 4-5 record, 80 IP, 87 Ks, 87 hits, .277 BAA. Seth Pinkerton is the closer, Drew Farkas is the main reliever and has been in the game when they make comebacks so he has a 7-2 record despite 0 starts. The main hitter is Nick Campana .389 10 HR.


There are no guarantees in regional play, and there will be several regionals where the 1 and 2 seed get upset on day 1 and then have to play through the loser's bracket. Stetson has the better pitching to do that. You have to also assume they'll get a big boost from the home crowd. It should be a fun weekend.
Nice write up! Thank you for your insight.
 

OstatePokes

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#64
What you did to get here doesn't matter it's whether or not you beat the team put in front of you.
Stetson and USF certainly have some strengths, but frankly, from looking at who all these teams beat and who they lost to, none of the teams in this regional have a resume that screams "WE BELONG". Pokes need to not just win day 1 but get some length from Day 1 starter, imo, depth of arms just isn't there otherwise, unless they go all Prarie View A&M on the field.
Very well said. The games that matter are about to be played.
 

OstatePokes

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#66
Does anyone know the status of injured players heading into the regional? Reza threw in OKC last week but I don't recall Leeper throwing. I didn't ever hear why he was unavailable against Tech but it would certainly be big if we have him this weekend. I assume Rosa will continue to play, but maybe not at 100%?
 

Takeout Slide

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#67
Tcu coach about to go to miss state?!?
Sounds like he's one of the very top candidates and is open to considering it. That would be a tough job to pass on given their commitment to baseball.

That said, if I was an AD, my eye might wander west of Ft. Worth to Lubbock. I'd argue that what Tadlock has done at TT is every bit as impressive as what Schlossnagle has done at TCU and without the advantage of being right in the middle of the DFW metroplex. I'm not a fan of either of their personalities, but, man, they've both built impressive programs.

Anyway, if Schlossnagle does leave, it will be interesting to see if they promote Saarloos or try to land a bigger fish. I don't think it's a coincidence that TCU's jump from good to great happened around the year that Saarloos came on board and their recruiting really picked up, but past examples have shown that solid assistants don't always make great HCs. Kendall Rogers says that it's Saarloos' job if Schlossnagle leaves (even though Saarloos is interviewing with Rice for their HC job), but they pay Schlossnagle 1.5 million, which would be more than enough to attract some really good candidates with HC experience.

On a similar note, and closer to our world, I'm interested to see who K State hires. Apparently some pretty solid names are interested.
 
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Ptak'sNewspaper

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#68
Sounds like he's one of the very top candidates and is open to considering it. That would be a tough job to pass on given their commitment to baseball.

That said, if I was an AD, my eye might wander west of Ft. Worth to Lubbock. I'd argue that what Tadlock has done at TT is every bit as impressive as what Schlossnagle has done at TCU and without the advantage of being right in the middle of the DFW metroplex. I'm not a fan of either of their personalities, but, man, they've both built impressive programs.

Anyway, if Schlossnagle does leave, it will be interesting to see if they promote Saarloos or try to land a bigger fish. Kendall Rogers says that it's Saarloos' job if Schlossnagle leaves (even though Saarloos is interviewing with Rice for their HC job), but they pay Schlossnagle 1.5 million, which would be more than enough to attract some really good candidates with HC experience.

On a similar note, and closer to our world, I'm interested to see who K State hires. Apparently some pretty solid names are interested.

I agree about Tadlock. He's one of the very best in the country. It would be good for our league for K-State to make a great hire and get back to being competitive.
 

Takeout Slide

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#69
I agree about Tadlock. He's one of the very best in the country. It would be good for our league for K-State to make a great hire and get back to being competitive.
I can't stand the guy, but his attitude seems to rub off on his players and that's definitely for the better if you're a Tech fan, ala Ward and OSU.

I just saw where Chad Holbrook at College of Charleston signed an extension, so I guess he's off the board for KSU. I agree on them making a good hire, as long as it's not Rob Walton. I'm just skeptical that anyone is going to do better than Brad Hill did - a few solid to really good teams here and there - given the climate challenges and distance from a solid recruiting base.
 
Aug 19, 2015
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ataballfield
#70
Does anyone know the status of injured players heading into the regional? Reza threw in OKC last week but I don't recall Leeper throwing. I didn't ever hear why he was unavailable against Tech but it would certainly be big if we have him this weekend. I assume Rosa will continue to play, but maybe not at 100%?
I think Leeper was in the bullpen warming up in the latter innings of the tt game just never got called in.
 

cowboyfanatic

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#72
I think Leeper was in the bullpen warming up in the latter innings of the tt game just never got called in.
OK that would be great. Rex made some comment about Reza and Leeper being unavailable that last weekend but never heard any details.
For the Texas tech series, Leeper was out with a back issue and Reza was out with a right pectoral muscle pull. Will need them both for the regional
 

Takeout Slide

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#77
USF hasn't announced the starter on the mound tomorrow. Will be interesting to see which way they go.

https://spark.adobe.com/page/ALbrqB30lA1YD/?w=0_6281
I hope (and expect) that the guys are looking forward to the challenge of facing some big time arms and to play spoiler in that regional. McClanahan is justifiably hyped, but let's don't forget that Nick Lodolo was the #41 pick coming out of HS in 2016 and they handled him pretty well earlier this year. Hoping to see the kind of plate aggression and approach we saw vs. TCU and OU. If we see that, I think we could make some noise.
 
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#80
From Eric Bailey...

Josh Holliday can look down his Oklahoma State baseball roster and count multiple battle-tested players.

“There are some special leaders on this team. When you look at some of the boys in this program who have played in Omaha (at the College World Series in 2016) and won Big 12 championships and now going on their fourth regional, these kids understand this,” Holliday said. “It doesn’t make it any easier. It just means they can share with the guys this week about what is in front of us and the fine line between winning and losing in postseason play.”

The Cowboys are the No. 3 seed in the four-team DeLand (Florida) Regional, which is hosted by No. 1 Stetson.

OSU will face South Florida at noon Friday. A victory pairs them against the Stetson-Hartford winner on Saturday night, while a loss would place them in an elimination contest.
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