Baseball Regional Projections

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Aug 19, 2015
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ataballfield
#46
This isn't as easy of a draw that some of you will believe it is. We will face a high 1st round lefty from USF that is a mid to upper 90s guy with filthy stuff. He averages 15 strikeouts per 9. Plus USF is a very good offensive team. Get by them and we'll face another projected 1st rounder in Stetson's no. 1, who they will surely save for game two. Can go with their no. 2 against the 4 seed in game one. Stetson had an argument at being a national seed. They are a very good, complete ball club.
 

OstatePokes

Territorial Marshal
Aug 24, 2007
6,348
1,940
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Knoxville, Tennessee
#47
Interesting regional. USF has 6 starters hitting over .300 (and a guy with 15 HRs and another with 10) but Stetson has an All-American pitcher in Logan Gilbert.

On the flip side, USF has a couple good pitchers (one is averaging just under 2 Ks per inning and the other is 9-3). Stetson has nobody hitting over .300 and nobody with more than 5 HRs.

Besides Gilbert, I almost feel like USF looks like the better team. I don't know much about either team, but at first pass the Bulls look like a challenging first round game.
 

OstatePokes

Territorial Marshal
Aug 24, 2007
6,348
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Knoxville, Tennessee
#51
No, the team that was playing in April needs to show up just to be competitive. Even then it's a tough draw.
In May USF went 1-1-1 against Wichita State over a weekend series. They lost 17-2 on Friday, won 9-6 on Saturday, and tied 9 all on Sunday. They played WSU twice in their conference tournament last weekend, going 1-1 against the Shockers. They are a good team, nothing more, nothing less.

Stetson had a great year but still lost series to Maryland and Kennesaw State. They are the favorites but this is the first time the program has ever hosted a regional. They aren't accustomed to being the hunted.

We could continue to struggle this weekend, but we are more than capable of winning this regional.
 

Lab Rat

Hold on while I make a chart
Jan 5, 2012
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#54
Absolutely love this draw! Looking at getting the hotel booked in Omaha before this week is over.
I’m not nearly as optimistic. In all 24 losses this season, our opponent has scored 6+ runs. In fact, we’re 7-24 when allowing 6 or more runs. USF has scored 6 or more runs in 8 of their last 10 games. Stetson has scored 6+ in 5 of their last 6. Our pitching will be tested.
 

OstatePokes

Territorial Marshal
Aug 24, 2007
6,348
1,940
1,743
Knoxville, Tennessee
#55
I’m not nearly as optimistic. In all 24 losses this season, our opponent has scored 6+ runs. In fact, we’re 7-24 when allowing 6 or more runs. USF has scored 6 or more runs in 8 of their last 10 games. Stetson has scored 6+ in 5 of their last 6. Our pitching will be tested.
All great stats and you make a valid point, but the competition has not been equal. These are certainly quality teams but I don't believe they would have fared as well against our schedule. The stat below is what is being overlooked. Ultimately, the games that matter will be played this weekend.

Strength of Schedule
OSU - 18
USF - 41
Stetson - 143

http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/isr/currentisr.html
 

Lab Rat

Hold on while I make a chart
Jan 5, 2012
7,083
9,999
743
#56
I’ve got a court hearing in the morning, but I’ll put something together after that. First blush of this regional is that we will see major league strike out arms.
Stetson alumni include Jacob deGrom and Corey Kluber. I hope no one on their staff reminds you of them. :blink:
 
Jul 16, 2005
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Edmond
#57
Stetson alumni include Jacob deGrom and Corey Kluber. I hope no one on their staff reminds you of them. :blink:
Just as an FYI, DeGrom was not always a pitcher. He was primarily a SS until the summer before his junior year. He ended up with a 4.48 ERA but had enough upside to be noticed and drafted.
 
Feb 27, 2018
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Tulsa
www.tulsaworld.com
#58
Don’t read too much into that “last four in” category displayed by ESPN. Oklahoma State coach Josh Holliday isn’t concerned that his team was looped with Dallas Baptist, Northeastern and Troy, according to the NCAA.

“I feel like the No. 2 RPI conference and finishing second in (the regular season) gave us this opportunity,” Holliday said on Monday. “We thank the ball clubs that we played along the way for the great competition. I can tell you it was a grind.”

The Cowboys have made NCAA Regional play in all six seasons under Holliday.

“I’m thrilled. These kids earned this. It didn’t come easy for us and these kids earned it,” Holliday said. “I’m proud of them. I’m just proud to continue on with them and I’m excited to continue going with this amazing opportunity.

“We’re going into a tough environment but that’s OK. That’s what postseason play is all about.”
Link
 

Matt_bob123

SBC presents Mattbob
Oct 16, 2003
3,881
538
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#59
The NCAA did not do the Cowboys any favors with our poor finish. You can talk about the last four in, but the key is where you get sent and the matchups. These are not great matchups. This regional reminds me a lot of going into Baylor. Great arms and teams playing well.

I don't have any idea what our pitching plan will be, but that's the key to any regional. You have to avoid getting in the loser's bracket so that means in the 2v3 matchup, you should see the best each has to offer. Honestly, I don't know what that means for OSU. That could be Teel, it could be Jensen, or it could mean a bullpen guy (then turning it over to Heasley) ( this seems to be the rage now in all levels, start a reliever then go to a starter, and Heasley only struggles in the first inning so it might be just what the Doctor ordered for him, who knows). I do think the plan in the Big12 was to utilize Joe in more of a bullpen role, either as long relief or set up guy, depending on the game. I'm okay with this.

Stetson: You may want to look at their RPI, conference, or name and discount them, but the truth is, you aren't a top seed without earning it. This pitching staff is legit. They sometimes struggled with better teams, but we aren't good enough to discount anyone. The highlight of the staff is obviously First Rounder RHP Logan Gilbert. He is a heavy strikeout pitcher (not that we are prone to striking out). He's 6'6" with an easy motion that comes down at the hitter, so it is deceptively quicker than the 91-95mph speed. According to scouts, it has good movement on the arm side. He relies on the speed, rarely using the slider (tho our scouting may cause him to go off book). His secondary stuff can fall back into the 70s. That's a lot of control to be able to back it off that much without tipping. The changeup does get thrown slightly different than the 2 seam fastball, so our hitters might be able to pick up on that. He's aggressive, he'll come after you quickly to get ahead in counts. So you will see the fastball early in the at-bat. The report I saw, said he mixes in the off-speed stuff as the game proceeds so he may hold that slider til 2nd time through the lineup. His stat line is scary. 10-1 in 14 starts, 2.52 ERA, 143Ks, 20 BB in 100 IP. (That's ungodly). opponents only batting .171 against him.

There's a chance he throws in game 1 to avoid them getting in the loser's bracket. Before you celebrate that if it happens, they have 3 other legit starters. Its a team built to win regionals. RHP Joey Gonzalez 1.77 ERA 8-3, opponents batting .192. RHP Jack Perkins 2.57 ERA 10-2, 93Ks, LHP Mitchell Senger 2.65 ERA 8-2, 107ks. Their closer is also their DH LHP Brooks Wilson 2.13 ERA, 31 appearances for 20 saves, 55 IP (but given up 40 hits, 68Ks). The other main reliever is LHP Ben Onyshko, 2.87 ERA, 20 appearances, 31 IP.

That's the kind of staffs that make it to Omaha. They don't have anyone hitting above 300, so if we can get a lead on those pitchers, even with our pitching issues, we should be able to hold the lead.

#24 South Florida: The story begins and ends with their Ace LHP Shane McClanahan, his fastball maxes out at 100mph. He's more likely to be in the 97-98 range, but he'll back it up to 90. The ability to vary the speed on the fastball is a huge weapon for him. The book on him is that he's a thrower more than a pitcher and for all his strikeouts, he does give up a fair number of walks when he loses the zone on his off-speed stuff. His delivery is a long stride with high consistency but described as violent as he finishes standing position, not using a full leg follow through. The good news is that he doesn't get a ton of run support on his starts, so the stats don't paint a scary picture. 5-6 Record, 3.41 ERA, 71 IP, 117K, 44 BB, .181 BAA, but only 4 home runs allowed.

Andrew Perez is the closer, 12 saves in 23 appearances, 4 to 1 strikeout ratio, their bullpen is a lot of guys that seemed to be used depending on the situation so I can't really guess what their strategy against us will be.

USF does carry a few bats with them and certainly could turn on our staff. They have 6 guys hitting .300, Villar and Genord are the main power guys, with Montes having the speed to hit a lot of doubles.

Hartford: I'm assuming they'll throw Dombkowski against Stetson, so we will probably see Nathan Florence in a potential game 2, 3.68 ERA, 4-5 record, 80 IP, 87 Ks, 87 hits, .277 BAA. Seth Pinkerton is the closer, Drew Farkas is the main reliever and has been in the game when they make comebacks so he has a 7-2 record despite 0 starts. The main hitter is Nick Campana .389 10 HR.


There are no guarantees in regional play, and there will be several regionals where the 1 and 2 seed get upset on day 1 and then have to play through the loser's bracket. Stetson has the better pitching to do that. You have to also assume they'll get a big boost from the home crowd. It should be a fun weekend.