2 oil tankers attacked off the coast of Iran. US sending Navy to assist

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Donnyboy

Lettin' the high times carry the low....
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Oct 31, 2005
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#21
Oil prices didn’t do shit. Iran’s production isn’t shit compared to what’s going on here. Something like this 15 years ago runs oil up dramatically.....like double digits per barrel. OPEC basket is actually down.

Thank you Permian basin.
 

llcoolw

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Feb 7, 2005
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#24
So here we go. I know this board is full of conspiracy buffs, so this whole thing makes me think of the JFK scene with Donald Sutherland.

1. Who benefits?
2. Who can pull it off?

At face value, it would seem Iran is simply showing some of the ways it can effect things globally under pressure. Flexing unconventional muscle you could say.

But for the more conspiratorial among us, which country(ies) fit the bill for the questions above?? I'll give it a shot:

1. Israel - The would certainly benefit from a direct military confrontation between Iran and the USA. And I think the Mosaad could certainly pull off a difficult operation like this one seems to be, mining a tanker in international waters.

2. Saudi Arabia - Like Israel, would stand to benefit from war between Iran and USA. I'm not sure they have as much capability to pull something like this off as Israel, but the kingdom is immensely rich, and will be even richer as oil prices rise due to potential conflict, not to mention probably victory in Yemen if Iran is in full blown war with the US.

3. Russia - Higher oil prices are to their favor, as is embroiling the US in another war in the Middle East. I'm sure they have the technical ability, but not sure it would make sense with their overall mid east strategy.

4. China - More of a reach, but it is possible China could calculate drawing the US into another Mideast war would raise oil prices, and put more pressure on Trump to concede on trade issues to avoid a recession induced by spiking oil prices as well as distracting the US from Pacific issues more in their sphere of influence such as Hong Kong and Taiwan.

5. A European ally - An even further reach, maybe Germany or France see a shooting war between the US and Iran as a way to save the EU, both economically and politically by positioning themselves further away from the US and more independently as well as picking up some of the economic pieces in the aftermath. Possibly even viewing the trans atlantic alliance as gone, and wanting closer ties with Russia and/or China.
Venezuela.
 

SLVRBK

Johnny 8ball's PR Manager
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#25
Let's not forget the drone attack on a Saudi pipeline, reportedly by Iranian backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. I suppose the "flying objects" one crew reported seeing could have been drones.

A missile, also alleged to have been fired by Houthi's, struck the arrival terminal at a regional Saudi Airport yesterday and killed 26 people.
 

SLVRBK

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#28
So, does that mean that someone (Iran) "technically" blew them up? :thumbup:
Below taken from this article: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...-attack-played-out/ar-AACSnWw?ocid=spartandhp
Four tankers were attacked on May 12, below are the International Findings:
On June 6, the initial findings of an international investigation into attacks on the four tankers concluded that a "state actor" was the most likely culprit, but did not mention any state by name.

The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Norway told the United Nations Security Council that there were "strong indications that the four attacks were part of a sophisticated and coordinated operation carried out with significant operational capacity."

Diplomats said the assessment of the damage to the four vessels and chemical analysis of the debris recovered revealed "it was highly likely that limpet mines were deployed."

In a printed statement describing the conclusions, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Norway said the attacks required trained divers and explosive charges placed under the waterline, near the engines so as to not sink the ships or detonate their cargoes, which indicated a knowledge of the design of the targeted ships. The countries say rapid withdrawal of the plotters by fast boats indicated understanding of the geographic area.

Yesterday's attack:
The most recent attack occurred a week later on June 13, when two tankers -- one carrying oil and the other transporting a cargo of chemicals -- were struck in broad daylight sailing through the Gulf of Oman, near the Strait of Hormuz.

The Norwegian Maritime Agency said that three explosions were reported on board the Marshall Islands-flagged Front Altair oil tanker, which is owned by the Bermuda-based Norwegian company Frontline. The company said that a fire broke out after an explosion and that the cause of the blast was unclear.

A second vessel, the Japanese-owned chemical tanker Kokura Courageous, was "attacked" twice "with some sort of shell," the ship's co-manager, Michio Yuube, said.

The vessels were hit "at or below the waterline, in close proximity to the engine room," said the International Association of Independent Tanker Owners (Intertanko).

"These appeared to be well-planned and coordinated" attacks, it added.

The US released this video which it says shows an Iranian fast boat removing a malfunctioning limpet mine from one of the ships involved in yesterday's attack. https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/13/politics/us-images-iranian-boat-removing-mine/index.html
 
Aug 3, 2018
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#30
Who benefits is always a great question to ask.
Iran's domestic economy is currently under severe pressure due to US led sanctions, which creates significant political unrest. Having castrated their global terrorism efforts also weakens their domestic control and global alliances. It also emboldens their major competitors - namely the Sunni lead (loosely) of Saudi Arabia.

So, Iran's oppressive human rights violating regime needs to somehow get out of the box they are in.
What we are seeing are the theocratic elite of Iran in their last twitches of life.

Currently US, Israel, and the civilized does not need to overtly provoke an Iranian attack. Iran is in a choke hold that will put their Shia theocracy to sleep either sooner or later. Doesn't matter to US when.

Here are the Iranian scenarios as I see them right now:
- Maintain the sanctions choke hold until one of the two below happens:

#1 Iranian people overthrown their abusive theocratic elite from within, likely spiraling into at least a decade of internal thrashing. Benefit for US - Iran is removed as a a viable terror sponsor from the global stage.

#2 Iran provokes an attack by the US and Allies. US will not "first strike" on Iran but is extremely well positioned to counter attack. If Iran were to attack US sailors or soldiers, just the 4 B-52's deployed in-region can each launch 24 cruise missiles per flight. That's 96 cruise missiles per sortie. Add in our submarine capability, and easily within a few hours Iran's military installations are blasted back into the stone age. Then follow with MOAB's onto each nuclear enrichment sight. Benefit to US, EU, Israel, and Sunni Arab block with Iran removed from the global stage is much more peace- better for commerce.

I personally cannot see a way out of this for Iran, unless the Democrats were to win the White House. Oddly the Democrats would likely follow Obama, Kerry, Biden, et al's policy of letting Iran continue to operate as the number one global terrorism sponsor.
I also cannot see how Iran can quickly recover from the impending internal melt down. They've been screwed up for over a century, so really have little/no experience governing themselves as a modern nation. I also don't see breaking them up, as they are a unique people with millennium of cultural identity. Perhaps there are Persian's in Europe or US that could repatriate such as Ravi Pahlavi. That would be strange...




So here we go. I know this board is full of conspiracy buffs, so this whole thing makes me think of the JFK scene with Donald Sutherland.

1. Who benefits?
2. Who can pull it off?

At face value, it would seem Iran is simply showing some of the ways it can effect things globally under pressure. Flexing unconventional muscle you could say.

But for the more conspiratorial among us, which country(ies) fit the bill for the questions above?? I'll give it a shot:

1. Israel - The would certainly benefit from a direct military confrontation between Iran and the USA. And I think the Mosaad could certainly pull off a difficult operation like this one seems to be, mining a tanker in international waters.

2. Saudi Arabia - Like Israel, would stand to benefit from war between Iran and USA. I'm not sure they have as much capability to pull something like this off as Israel, but the kingdom is immensely rich, and will be even richer as oil prices rise due to potential conflict, not to mention probably victory in Yemen if Iran is in full blown war with the US.

3. Russia - Higher oil prices are to their favor, as is embroiling the US in another war in the Middle East. I'm sure they have the technical ability, but not sure it would make sense with their overall mid east strategy.

4. China - More of a reach, but it is possible China could calculate drawing the US into another Mideast war would raise oil prices, and put more pressure on Trump to concede on trade issues to avoid a recession induced by spiking oil prices as well as distracting the US from Pacific issues more in their sphere of influence such as Hong Kong and Taiwan.

5. A European ally - An even further reach, maybe Germany or France see a shooting war between the US and Iran as a way to save the EU, both economically and politically by positioning themselves further away from the US and more independently as well as picking up some of the economic pieces in the aftermath. Possibly even viewing the trans atlantic alliance as gone, and wanting closer ties with Russia and/or China.
 

OSU79

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Back home in God's (Green) Country
#31
I also cannot see how Iran can quickly recover from the impending internal melt down. They've been screwed up for over a century, so really have little/no experience governing themselves as a modern nation. I also don't see breaking them up, as they are a unique people with millennium of cultural identity. Perhaps there are Persian's in Europe or US that could repatriate such as Ravi Pahlavi. That would be strange...
I don't disagree with most of your post, but I do think they could self-govern in fairly short order (5-10 years?) if/when the theocracy fails. Remember that Iran was quite Westernized in the 1970s before the fall of the Shah, and many Iranians were educated in the West during that time (LOTS of Iranians at OSU when I was there). I think many might repatriate, as you mention. Also, access to the internet, television, social media and foreign economic investment in Iran would very rapidly educate their masses and promote social change.
 
Aug 3, 2018
53
29
18
Arizona
#32
I don't disagree with most of your post, but I do think they could self-govern in fairly short order (5-10 years?) if/when the theocracy fails. Remember that Iran was quite Westernized in the 1970s before the fall of the Shah, and many Iranians were educated in the West during that time (LOTS of Iranians at OSU when I was there). I think many might repatriate, as you mention. Also, access to the internet, television, social media and foreign economic investment in Iran would very rapidly educate their masses and promote social change.
Coming out of engineering, I too went to school and have many co-workers that are Persians. They're very western and man on man is their food good.

I wish I could be more optimistic on the self governance. I've been studying middle eastern history a bit. Iran has such a long history of being a proxy state with propped up Persian "leaders" - Moghuls, Arabs, Russians, US... Even as early as early 20th century, the Iranian military officer ranks were by design Russian military officers.

Hopefully communications and repatriation will speed their development.

Given our current political divide, it's not surprising to see this ancient model of local ruling elite being propped up by foreign powers. Globalization seems to default to this type of implementation.

But that's all moot, until the current sadly home grown Shia theocracy implodes. And frankly it's a horrific "growing pain" that Iran will eventually have to go through. I have faith that empowerment of humanity will prevail over these despot regimes.

P.S. And it's absolutely absurd that our media keeps spinning the "alleged Iranian attacks". If I'm not mistaken Iran has been trumpeting that they would close the Persian Gulf traffic, with force, for the last 6 months. Now we're hearing media discuss Bay of Tonkin. LOL
 
Last edited:
Aug 3, 2018
53
29
18
Arizona
#33
Oil prices didn’t do shit. Iran’s production isn’t shit compared to what’s going on here. Something like this 15 years ago runs oil up dramatically.....like double digits per barrel. OPEC basket is actually down.

Thank you Permian basin.
It was brilliant for Mr President to enable ramp of domestic oil production before starting major sanctions. Of course not a Lefty on the planet understands simple supply and demand.